The Memorial Tournament Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay

The SI golf betting panel breaks down outright, longshot, first-round leader and prop bets for the signature event at Muirfield Village.

Patrick Cantlay (left), Justin Thomas (center) and Viktor Hovland (right) are among our outright betting picks. / Viktor Hovland: Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images, Justin Thomas: Andrew Redington/Getty Images, Patrick Cantlay: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images, Background: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

The SI Golf betting panel had a week to forget at the Charles Schwab Challenge, recording just the second winless week of the season. Golf betting is a rollercoaster of ups and downs and with last week now in the rearview mirror, it's time to look forward to a fun three weeks ahead, starting with this week’s Memorial Tournament and ending with back-to-back national opens, including the U.S. Open at Oakmont.

This week, Jack’s Place, Muirfield Village, will host the penultimate signature event of the 2025 calendar year. Rory McIlroy has decided to take the week off, but we still have a loaded field of golfers looking to cash in on a big payday.

This week’s betting panel is comprised of SI Golf betting insiders, Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams, and Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner. Minute Media VP of Betting Content, Brian Giuffra, is off this week, teeing it up at beautiful Bandon Dunes in Oregon.

Our journey of giving out an outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet, and winning score prediction continues this week. MacMillan (-40 units) and Schwarb (-57 units) are still seeking their first outright wins of the season, but MacMillan has been strong with his prop bets (+7.24 units) and looks to continue that this week.

Vincenzi (+83 units), Kirschner (+107 units), and Williams (+6 units), have all cashed at least one outright and/or first-round leader this season and are hoping to nail another at Muirfield Village.

Let's dive into everyone's picks and breakdowns for this week's signature event.

The Memorial Tournament betting picks. / Sports Illustrated

Outright 

Iain MacMillan: Justin Thomas +1800 (FanDuel)

Justin Thomas enters this week ranking second in the field in true strokes gained over the past six months and he already has a win on the season, something the other top competitors not named Scottie Scheffler can’t say.  He missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but he was in such good form before the major that I’m willing to look past it.

Matt Vincenzi: Xander Schauffele +1600 (DraftKings)

Xander Schauffele has been relatively quiet since returning from his intercostal strain injury, but he’s shown signs recently of a complete return to form. He’s continued to gain distance off the tee and is a big game hunter who’d love to add a Memorial win to his already impressive resume. 

John Schwarb: Patrick Cantlay +2200 (DraftKings)

Patrick Cantlay’s major struggles are well-documented, but maybe we’ve got it all wrong—this week is a major, at least as far as the Tour is concerned, and Cantlay has won here twice. Being top 30 in strokes-gained approach and off the tee will always play at Muirfield Village, and though Cantlay hasn’t won this season, he was T5 at the Genesis, T12 at the Players and T4 at the Truist. The Tour’s biggest events are his majors, and it’s time to add another here.

Brian Kirschner: Keegan Bradley +5000 (DraftKings)

This is going to be the week Keegan breaks through on the PGA Tour once again. Coming off a T8 at the PGA Championship, his best major finish since 2022, I think he is in the form to win this week. The key this week is ball striking, and he has been hitting it so well recently. He is gaining over one stroke per event with his irons and driver over the past 20, 10, and five events. I am not worried about the course history, as this is his week to win. 

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland +3000 (DraftKings)

Not only did Viktor Hovland visit the Shawshank Redemption prison again, but he continues to trend and is now coming to a place he’s won previously in Muirfield Village. Admittedly, his course history is erratic, but he’s displaying the necessary form to win again. Hovland is quietly third in SG: Approach in the field over the last 24 rounds and elite on approach from 175 to 225 yards, which we’ll see plenty of this week. With positive putting on Bentgrass as well, it’s time he reintroduces himself to the elite company on the PGA Tour. 

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Alex Noren +7500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren came back from an injury and immediately picked up where he left off in 2024. He finished T51 at the Truist Championship and then T17 at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, a course that, in theory, shouldn’t fit his style of golf. Despite that, he gained +1.19 strokes per round with his approach play, one of the best marks in the field. Now, he heads to Muirfield Village, a course that he’s had success at in the past and one that fits his plotting style of golf significantly better.

Matt Vincenzi: Tony Finau +5000 (DraftKings)

Tony Finau is trending towards a return to peak form and has been absolutely striping his irons over his past two starts. At the PGA Championship, Finau gained 5.88 strokes on approach, which ranked 6th in the field. 

John Schwarb: Harris English +6500 (FanDuel)

The harder the golf course, the more Harris English is worth a look. The winner this year at tough Torrey Pines (winning score: 8 under), English also finished T12 at the Masters and T2 at the PGA. His history at Muirfield Village actually isn’t sparkling—he was T13 in 2020 but has missed two of three cuts since—but I like his form and the price.

Brian Kirschner: Robert Macintyre +6000 (FanDuel)

This two-time winner on the PGA Tour certainly possesses the win equity to hold the trophy on Sunday afternoon. Coming off a T6 last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Bob had a great week with his irons and putter. Gaining over 4 strokes in both categories. In a difficult, moderate scoring event, I think it is a great spot to deploy Bob Mac as he gears up for the Ryder Cup this fall. 

Cody Williams: Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12000 (FanDuel)

Definitely a longshot, but Christiaan Bezuidenhout is trending a bit. While a T50 and T16 finish at the PGA and Charles Schwab might not show it, he’s getting his ball striking back, gaining 4.3 strokes or more on approach in both events. He’s also seventh in strokes-gained putting on bentgrass over the last 24 rounds and finished solo fourth at this event a year ago, while also never finishing worse than T38 at the Memorial in four starts. With the trending form and a phenomenal price at 120/1, he’s worth a long look.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Denny McCarthy +5000 (FanDuel)

Denny McCarthy is fresh off a T8 at the PGA Championship, and now he returns to Muirfield Village, a course he’s posted two top-five finishes at over the past three years. He’s also 15th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average this season at 69.08.

Matt Vincenzi: Matt Fitzpatrick +4500 (DraftKings)

Matt Fitzpatrick has had a poor season to this point, but has clearly figured something out over his last two starts. Muirfield Village is one of his favorite stops on Tour, and I’m expecting a big week for the former U.S. Open champion.

John Schwarb: Stephan Jaeger +9000 (FanDuel)

The German has been a rabbit in his last four starts with nothing higher than a 67 in opening rounds, and two of those were signature events and the PGA Championship. He only has one top 10 to show for those (T7 at the Truist), but of course, that’s no consequence here. This is the right price to take a flyer on one more hot start.

Brian Kirschner: Si Woo Kim +5500 (FanDuel)

Si Woo has certainly found some form after a poor start to his PGA Tour season. His worst finish over his last 5 starts is a T28 with a top 10 at a major and a signature event. Si Woo has also played really great golf at this event. In his last 4 years, he has finished 15th, 4th, 13th and 9th. I think he can get off to a fast start and be FRL on Thursday afternoon. 

Cody Williams: Bud Cauley +7500 (FanDuel)

I’m developing some irrational Bud Cauley takes right now, but I’m going to mitigate those by simply taking him to come out with a strong first round atop the leaderboard. Cauley is 11th in strokes-gained approach and 14th in strokes-gained tee to green over the last 24 rounds in this field while also gaining the most strokes on par-4s measuring 450 to 500 yards, which is what Muirfield Village is going to ask a lot of. Coming off a solo third at the Charles Schwab, I think that momentum carries into Round 1, and he gets into the mix early, even if he might fade a bit throughout the tournament. 

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Ludvig Aberg Miss the Cut +280 (FanDuel)

There is no doubt that Ludvig Aberg is in a slump. Since finishing solo seventh at the Masters, he has finished T54 at the RBC Heritage, dead last at the Truist Championship, and then missed the cut at the PGA Championship. Unless he figured something out during his week off, he’s going to struggle again this week.

Matt Vincenzi: Corey Conners Top Canadian +135 (DraftKings)

The outright price was too short for my liking this week, but I do believe Conners is in store for a great performance. He’s been playing extremely well of late and is a great fit for the golf course, despite not having the super high finishes yet at Memorial to prove it. That will change this week. 

John Schwarb: Winning Score Over 274.5 -120 (DraftKings)

One is always playing with fire when betting Tour players not to go low, but this tournament hasn’t seen a 14 under or better winner since 2019 when Patrick Cantlay went wild at 19 under. Jack likes his place to play difficult, and if Columbus doesn’t get too much rain this week (also a sometimes iffy wish), look for Muirfield Village to more than hold its own. 

Brian Kirschner: Andrew Novak Top 20 +150 (DraftKings)

I believe that Andrew Novak is a very talented golfer who is having a great year on the PGA Tour. He has shined in difficult conditions and should be a great fit here. Excluding a cut at the PGA Championship, he has gone T3, second win, T17, and T11. Very impressive start recently, and with a limited field, a top 20 should be easy to cash. 

Cody Williams: Si Woo Kim to finish Top 10 +275 (BetMGM)

Si Woo Kim is two things: Playing really good golf right now and completely bankable at the Memorial. Kim hasn’t finished worse than T15 in his last four starts at this event, including a solo fourth and a T9 showing. He was a bit inconsistent at the Charles Schwab, particularly on approach, but had gained 3.25 strokes or more in that category in three straight events coming in. Now at a place where he feels far more comfortable, he’s going to recapture some of that consistency and likely show up on the first page of the leaderboard.

Winning Score

• Iain MacMillan: -9
• Matt Vincenzi:-11
• John Schwarb: -8
• Brian Kirschner: -10
• Cody Williams: -10

---

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.