Mercury vs. Aces Opening Odds for WNBA Finals (Las Vegas Set as Favorite Ahead of Game 1)

Who will win the WNBA Finals?

The Las Vegas Aces are favored to win the WNBA Finals. / Candice Ward-Imagn Images

The WNBA Finals are set! 

A thrilling overtime win on Tuesday night sent the Las Vegas Aces to the Finals, and they’ll take on the Phoenix Mercury in a best-of-seven series.

Las Vegas has made the Finals three times in the last four seasons, winning it all in both the 2022 and 2023 seasons. 

Meanwhile, the Mercury are making their first Finals appearance since 2021, and they haven’t won a title since 2014 when Diana Taurasi was in the prime of her career. Overall, Phoenix has three titles in its history.

The Mercury reshaped their roster this past offseason, trading for both Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to pair with star guard Kahleah Copper. 

Taurasi retired and Brittney Griner left for Atlanta, but the Mercury have been one of the best teams in the league all season long, earning the No. 4 seed in the standings while posting a dominant record at home.

However, they haven’t been as hot as the Aces, who won 16 games to finish the regular season and earn the No. 2 seed.

Las Vegas has home-court advantage in this series, and as a result, oddsmakers have set A’ja Wilson and company as favorites in this series.

Both of these teams have Finals experience, as Thomas made the Finals during her time with the Connecticut Sun and Copper is a former Finals MVP.

Las Vegas still has a bunch of its core that won the title in 2023, although Kelsey Plum has been swapped out for Jewell Loyd.

This is expected to be a relatively tight series as the WNBA shifts to a best-of-seven format in the Finals for the first time.

Let’s take a look at the opening odds for this series and for Game 1 on Friday night.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 WNBA Finals Series Odds

• Aces: -135
• Mercury: +114

The Aces are slight favorites in this series, and they won three of the four regular-season meetings between these teams. Las Vegas also dominated the last time these teams played, winning 83-61 back on Aug. 21. 

2025 WNBA Finals Correct Score Odds

• Aces in 7: +390
• Mercury in 6: +475
• Aces in 6: +550
• Aces in 5: +550
• Mercury in 7: +650
• Aces in 4: +750
• Mercury in 5: +850
• Mercury in 4: +1100

Based on the correct score odds, it seems like oddsmakers at the best betting sites are expecting a long series. Only the Aces in 5 (+550) has relatively short odds, while any other outcome in five or fewer games is +750 or higher. 

Mercury vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total for Game 1

Spread

• Mercury +3 (-112)
• Aces -3 (-108)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +130
• Aces: -155

Total

• 160 (Over -108/Under -112)

It makes sense that the Aces are favored at home in Game 1, as they went 17-5 straight up in the regular season and have lost just one home game so far in the playoffs. However, Phoenix will have a rest advantage coming into Game 1 since it finished up its semifinal series on Sunday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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