Mercury vs. Aces Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Finals Game 1

The Aces are favored at home in Game 1.

The Las Vegas Aces and center A'ja Wilson are favored in Game 1. / Candice Ward-Imagn Images

For the first time in WNBA history, the Finals will be a best-of-seven series, and two red hot teams will battle for WNBA supremacy beginning in Friday’s Game 1.

The Las Vegas Aces (the No. 2 seed) are looking to win their third title in four seasons when they take on the Phoenix Mercury (the No. 4 seed), who are looking for their first title since 2014.

Las Vegas closed the regular season on a 16-game winning streak, and it knocked off Phoenix three times in four meetings this season to finish ahead of it in the standings. However, the Mercury finished 10 games over .500 themselves, and they knocked off the defending champion New York Liberty and the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Lynx on their way to the Finals.

Both of these teams have new looks this season, as Phoenix completely changed its core around Kahleah Copper with Diana Taurasi retiring. The Mercury traded for Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, two moves that have propelled the team into championship contention.

Meanwhile, the Aces broke up their core four, trading away Kelsey Plum in a deal that brought Jewell Loyd to Las Vegas. Then, during the season, Las Vegas gave up a first-round pick to add forward NaLyssa Smith to play alongside A’ja Wilson in the frontcourt. 

These are two experienced and battle-tested teams, as the Aces have gone the distance in each of their playoff series in 2025 while the Mercury battled back from a 1-0 series deficit in Round 1. 

Oddsmakers have set the Aces as favorites at home in Game 1, where they went 17-5 in the regular season. Can they pick up another home win to get the Finals started off on the right foot?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch, injuries and more for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. 

Mercury vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Mercury +3 (-112)
• Aces -3 (-108)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +130
• Aces: -155

Total

• 160 (Over -108/Under -112)

Mercury vs. Aces How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Oct. 3
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 0-0

Mercury vs. Aces Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• None to report

Aces Injury Report

• None to report

Mercury vs. Aces Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Alyssa Thomas 35+ Points, Rebounds and Assists (-130)

Mercury star Alyssa Thomas has been one of the driving forces for the team’s success this entire season, and she’s a triple-double threat on a nightly basis.

This postseason, Thomas has put up 35 or more points, rebounds and assists in four of her seven games, including the last three games of the semis against the Lynx.

Overall, the six-time All-Star is averaging 18.6 points, 9.1 assists and 8.4 rebounds per game in the postseason. 

In her regular-season meetings with the Aces, Thomas had 34, 30, 31 and 33 PRA. While she failed to clear this line in all of those matchups, Thomas has seen her scoring jump from the regular season, going from 15.4 points per game to 18.6 per game in the playoffs. 

I think she’s a great bet to hit this number against an Aces team that has played some high-scoring affairs this postseason. 

Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Aces are my bet to win Game 1: 

These teams are somewhat opposites in the playoffs, as the Aces rank No. 1 in the league in offensive rating while the Mercury are No. 1 in defensive rating.

However, I think Las Vegas is the team to back at home in Game 1. 

This season, the Aces are a 21-6 straight up at home (including playoffs), and their only loss of the playoffs at Michelob Ultra Arena came in Game 1 to the Indiana Fever. Las Vegas also is an impressive 3-1 against the Mercury this season, winning each of the last three matchups between these teams. 

Phoenix has a lot of WNBA Finals experience despite the team getting a ton of new faces in the offseason, but it doesn’t have the continuity that the Aces have from their 2023 title team.

Plus, the Mercury were just 12-10 straight up in the regular season on the road. 

Las Vegas had some ups and downs in the semis against Indiana, but I think the Mercury benefitted in a big way from Napheesa Collier’s injury in their series.

Since the Aces have just three losses over the last two months of action, I think they’re worth a bet to win the series opener. 

Pick: Aces Moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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