Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

The Lynx are double-digit favorites on Tuesday.

The Lynx are favored on Tuesday against the Mercury. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For the second time this season, the Phoenix Mercury will match up with the Minnesota Lynx, only this time, there are some more stakes.

This is a WNBA Commissioner’s Cup matchup – the Lynx are the defending Commissioner’s Cup champions – and both teams are 1-0 in Commissioner’s Cup play in 2025.

Despite that, oddsmakers have set the Lynx and MVP candidate Napheesa Collier as massive favorites at home in this game.

The Mercury have been banged up, as Kahleah Copper and Natasah Mack have been ruled out, and Alyssa Thomas missed the team's last game. Still, Phoenix is 5-2 in the 2025 season and only lost by three to the Lynx (albeit without Collier) the last time these teams faced off.

Alyssa Thomas (calf) ruled out for Tuesday.

— Underdog WNBA (@UnderdogWNBA) June 2, 2025

Here’s a breakdown of Tuesday’s matchup, including the latest odds, players to bet in the prop market, and my prediction. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mercury +10.5 (-110)
• Lynx -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +440
• Lynx: -600

Total

• 156.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 3
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN3
• Mercury record: 5-2
• Lynx record: 7-0

Mercury vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Alyssa Thomas – out
• Natasha Mack – out
• Kahleah Copper – out

Lynx Injury Report

• None to report

Mercury vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bets

Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Napheesa Collier OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-114)

This season, Collier is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game, but she’s picked up double-digit boards in three straight contests. 

The Lynx star did not play in the most recent matchup between these teams, but this is a great matchup for her, as the Mercury ranks 11th out of 13 teams in the WNBA in rebounding percentage. 

Plus, forward Alyssa Thomas has been banged up for the Mercury, missing their last game. So, if she sits again, Collier could have a pretty solid path to a double-digit rebounding game. Last season, the MVP candidate averaged 9.7 rebounds per game, a career-high.

I expect her to continue to push her season average in 2025 in that direction on Tuesday.

Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Mercury are undervalued in this matchup: 

The Mercury kept things close with the Lynx in their last meeting (Collier did not play), and I think they’re a little undervalued as 10.5-point dogs on Tuesday.

The Lynx are really struggling against the spread at home this season (0-3), and while they have yet to lose a game, they haven’t done a great job covering as massive favorites. Most recently, they failed to cover against the Golden State Valkyries with Collier back in the lineup.

Phoenix is shorthanded at the moment with Natasha Mack and Kahleah Copper injured, but it ranks fourth in the WNBA in net rating and second in defensive rating, allowing it to stay in games.

The additions of Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas has raised the Mercury’s ceiling, and they are an impressive 4-2 against the spread and 2-1 ATS as underdogs. 

While the Lynx have the second-best net rating in the W, I’m not sold on them blowing out the Mercury in a Commissioner’s Cup game, especially if Thomas is back in the lineup. 

Pick: Mercury +10.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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