Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Semifinals Game 2

The Lynx are favored at home in Game 2.

The Minnesota Lynx and forward Napheesa Collier are 22-2 at home this season. / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx dominated the second half of Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals to beat the Phoenix Mercury and take a 1-0 series lead.

Counting the playoffs, the Lynx are an amazing 22-2 at home this season, and they’re favored once again on Tuesday in Game 2.

The Mercury have now dropped the series opener in each of their playoff series this season, but they showed in the first half (led at the break) that they can certainly hang with this Lynx team.

Minnesota has yet to lose in the playoffs, and it’s a perfect 2-0 against the spread at home. Can it keep that rolling in Game 2?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Tuesday’s matchup. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Mercury +7.5 (-110)
• Lynx -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +280
• Lynx: -355

Total

• 158.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 23
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Minnesota leads 1-0

Mercury vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• None to report

Lynx Injury Report

• DiJonai Carrington – out

Mercury vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Satou Sabally UNDER 14.5 Points (-115)

Satou Sabally was held to just 10 points in Game 1 against the No. 1 defense in the WNBA, the second time that she failed to reach 15 points in a game this postseason.

Game 1 continued a troubling trend for Sabally, who took just 11 shots in the loss. After the All-Star break, the star forward averaged just 13.9 points on 11.3 shots per game despite the fact that she was more efficient during that stretch than her season-long numbers.

I have a hard time backing Sabally in this market, especially since the Lynx held the Mercury to just 22 second-half points in Game 1. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER is worth a look in this Game 2 matchup:

The Mercury and Lynx both were top-five teams in the league in defensive rating in the regular season, and they fell short of this total in Game 1, combining for just 151 points. 

The Mercury are 4-for-4 this postseason in combining for less than 158.5 points, while the Lynx have done so in two of their three games.

Minnesota loves to slow the pace (10th in the WNBA during the regular season), and it has elite defenders across the board, including co-DPOY Alanna Smith. 

Meanwhile, the Mercury are one of the best UNDER teams in the WNBA, going 27-18-2 to the UNDER so far this season. 

These teams did not clear 158.5 combined points once in four regular-season meetings, so I’ll gladly take the UNDER once again in Game 2. 

Pick: UNDER 158.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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