Mercury vs. Wings Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Thursday, July 3

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Phoenix Mercury-Dallas Wings matchup on July 3.

The Phoenix Mercury are favored on Thursday night. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Dallas Wings are looking to climb out of the bottom group in the WNBA standings, but they have a tough matchup on Thursday against the No. 2-seeded Phoenix Mercury.

Phoenix is 12-5 so far in 2025, and its arrow is pointing upward with Kahleah Copper back in the lineup from a knee injury. Phoenix had a major win streak in June, beating the New York Liberty during that stretch, and it’s a major road favorite in this Western Conference clash.

The Wings, on the other hand, are dealing with a ton of injuries heading into this game and didn’t have Paige Bueckers in their last contest. She did practice in full on Tuesday, but Dallas will be shorthanded on Thursday night even with the rookie expected to return.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup, including my favorite prop bet and spread bet for Mercury-Wings. 

Mercury vs. Wings Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mercury -7.5 (-110)
• Wings +7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mercury: -310
• Wings: +250

Total

• 168.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Wings How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 3
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: College Park Center
• How to Watch (TV): Arizona’s Family Sports, KFAA
• Mercury record: 12-5
• Wings record: 5-13

Mercury vs. Wings Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Lexi Held – day-to-day

Wings Injury Report

• Ty Harris – out
• Maddy Siegrist – out
• Paige Bueckers – expected to play
• Arike Ogunbowale – out
• DiJonai Carrington – doubtful
• Myisha Hines-Allen – questionable

Mercury vs. Wings Best WNBA Prop Bets

Wings Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Paige Bueckers OVER 17.5 Points (-120)

With the Wings down several players on Thursday, I’m buying Paige Bueckers to go over her points prop, which is currently set at 17.5.

Bueckers has 18 or more points in seven games in the 2025 season and five of her seven games since returning from concussion protocol. Overall, the No. 1 overall pick is averaging 18.4 points per game while shooting 46.1 percent from the field.

She should see a ton of usage on Thursday, as she’s taken 17.4 shots per game in her last seven games.

Mercury vs. Wings Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Phoenix is the bet to make on the road in this matchup: 

The Phoenix Mercury already have a double-digit win over the Dallas Wings in the 2025 season, and I am backing them to pick up another on Thursday night.

While it seems like Paige Bueckers (full participant in Tuesday’s practice) will be good to go on Thursday, the Wings are still extremely banged up with Maddy Siegrist and Ty Harris out and DiJonai Carrington, Arike Ogunbowale and Myisha Hines-Allen all nursing injuries.

Carrington is doubtful and Ogunbowale has been ruled out on Thursday.

As it is, the Wings are one of the worst teams in the WNBA this season, ranking 10th in net rating while posting a 5-13 record (including an 8-10 mark against the spread).

Phoenix, on the other hand, has a +5.4 net rating in the 2025 season and an impressive 5-2 record on the road. The Mercury are also finally at full strength with Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper all healthy.

I think Phoenix ends up rolling in this matchup – especially if Dallas rules out a few more key players. 

Pick: Mercury -7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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