Mets vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 23

The Cubs are favored with Cade Horton on the mound.

Chicago Cubs pitcher Cade Horton is a solid prop target on Sept. 23. / Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

The New York Mets’ season is on the line in the final week of the regular season, as they’ve fallen out of the No. 3 spot in the NL wild card race heading into their series with the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago has clinched a playoff spot, but it cannot win the NL Central division, as the Milwaukee Brewers have a 6.5-game lead on the Cubbies with just five games left in their season.

Still, Chicago is favored at home in this matchup with youngster Cade Horton (2.66 ERA) on the mound. Since the All-Star break, there is an argument that Horton has been the best pitcher in baseball, posting a 0.93 ERA across 11 starts.

The Mets will rely on lefty David Peterson (3.98 ERA) to help them end a two-game skid to stay alive in the playoff picture in the NL.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Tuesday’s contest. 

Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (+170)
• Cubs +1.5 (-210)

Moneyline

• Mets: +101
• Cubs: -123

Total

• 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Mets vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

• New York: David Peterson (9-6, 3.98 ERA)
• Chicago: Cade Horton (11-4, 2.66 ERA)

Mets vs. Cubs How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 23
• Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• How to Watch (TV): TBS, MARQ, SNY
• Mets record: 80-76
• Cubs record: 88-68

Mets vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

• Cade Horton UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+112)

A plus-money prop for Horton on Tuesday? Sign me up.

The Cubs youngster has given up one or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 11 starts, and he’s given up two or more runs in just eight of his 22 outings in 2025.

Since the All-Star break, Horton has given up just six runs and 31 hits in 11 starts (58.1 innings of work). He’s an easy bet on Tuesday against a struggling Mets team. 

Mets vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I love the Cubs to win this matchup: 

The Chicago Cubs have already clinched a playoff spot in the 2025 season, and they have a chance to knock the New York Mets further down in the standings on Tuesday.

New York has fallen out of the No. 3 spot in the NL wild card race, and it’s in danger of missing the playoffs with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks both fighting for that final spot. 

On Tuesday, lefty David Peterson is on the mound for the Mets against Chicago youngster Cade Horton, who has been one of the best pitchers in MLB since the All-Star break.

Horton has a 2.66 ERA for the entire 2025 season, but he’s posted a 0.93 ERA in 11 starts since the break, allowing one or fewer runs in 10 of those outings.

The opposite can be said for Peterson, who has a 5.71 ERA in 11 starts since the break, leading the Mets to a 4-7 record during that stretch. In September, Peterson has allowed 20 hits and 13 earned runs in 15.1 innings of work. 

Overall, Chicago is 15-7 in Horton’s starts and it’s gone an impressive 46-29 at home in 2025. I love the Cubbies at this price on Tuesday night. 

Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-123 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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