Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, June 5

The Mets and Dodgers face off in their series finale on Thursday.

New York Mets first base Pete Alonso is a great prop target on June 5. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers have played a hard-fought series so far, and it wraps up on Thursday afternoon with the Mets leading the Dodgers 2-1 in the matchup.

New York will have lefty David Peterson on the mound with a chance to take the series while the Dodgers will rely on Landon Knack to potentially pick up a split.

These two teams appear to be on yet another collision course to meet in the NLCS, so winning these regular season matchups is huge for the place in the overall NL standings.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Thursday’s series finale. 

Mets vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-180)
• Dodgers -1.5 (+150)

Moneyline

• Mets: +110
• Dodgers: -130

Total

• 9.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mets vs. Dodgers Probable Pitchers

• New York: David Peterson (4-2, 2.69 ERA)
• Los Angeles: Landon Knack (3-2, 4.58 ERA)

Mets vs. Dodgers How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 5
• Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network
• Mets record: 39-23
• Dodgers record: 37-25

Mets vs. Dodgers Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+200)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Alonso is a great bet to go yard in Thursday’s series finale: 

Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is having a terrific season, hitting .290 with 14 home runs heading into Thursday’s series finale with the Dodgers.

Alonso has faced Dodgers starter Landon Knack three times in his MLB career, going 1-for-3 with a homer. So, I don’t mind taking him to go deep in this matchup. 

Knack has given up seven home runs in eight outings in 2025, and he comes into Thursday’s contest with a 4.58 ERA and 4.91 FIP. 

Alonso has actually fared better against right-handed pitching in 2025, hitting .295 with a .956 OPS and 11 home runs. 

Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

This total is steadily climbing for the series finale between these two World Series contenders, and it makes sense given the pitching matchup.

Knack has struggled at times for the Dodgers this season, posting a 4.58 ERA and an expected ERA of 5.09 – which ranks in the 14th percentile in MLB this season. On top of that, he already has three starts this season where he’s given up at least four runs.

The Mets and Dodgers are both elite offenses, ranking in the top 10 in both OPS and runs scored. The Dodgers outrank the Mets in both categories, and I think they’ll be able to get to Peterson on Thursday.

While the lefty has solid numbers overall, his expected ERA is much higher at 3.90 – outside of the 50th percentile in Major League Baseball. Peterson also ranks in just the 15th percentile in hard-hit percentage, so when hitters are making contact they’re squaring the ball up. 

After a couple of lower-scoring games in Games 1 and 3, I think the offenses come to life in this series finale. 

Pick: OVER 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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