Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Pete Alonso, Pete Crow-Armstrong)

Pete Alonso is a solid bet to homer on Thursday afternoon.

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is a great prop target on Thursday. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Thursday’s MLB action features a ton of afternoon games, and while there are some great pitchers on the mound (Robbie Ray, Bryan Woo, Max Fried, Cole Ragans and Framber Valdez) there are also some to bet against.

Every day at SI Betting, we share our favorite home run prop bets to help bettors potentially cash in on some favorable odds. Plus, who doesn’t love rooting for a home run?

On Thursday, I’m targeting three players to go deep, including one in the series finale between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Here’s a complete breakdown of these home run props and their latest odds on Thursday, June 5. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, June 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+200)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+360)
• Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+200)

Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is having a terrific season, hitting .290 with 14 home runs heading into Thursday’s series finale with the Dodgers.

Alonso has faced Dodgers starter Landon Knack three times in his MLB career, going 1-for-3 with a homer. So, I don’t mind taking him to go deep in this matchup. 

Knack has given up seven home runs in eight outings in 2025, and he comes into Thursday’s contest with a 4.58 ERA and 4.91 FIP. 

Alonso has actually fared better against right-handed pitching in 2025, hitting .295 with a .956 OPS and 11 home runs. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin is one of my favorite pitchers to fade on Thursday night, as he has given up 10 homers in the 2025 season in just 12 starts.

Irvin does enter this matchup against the Chicago Cubs with a respectable 3.93 ERA, but I think he could run into some problems against Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong.

PCA has 15 homers in the 2025 season – 12 of them have come against right-handed pitching – and he’s posted a .314/.351/.622 slash line against them. In four plate appearances against Irvin in his MLB career, Crow-Armstrong has a double and a walk, going 1-for-3. 

He’s worth a look on Thursday, especially since he’s hit well over the last week, posting a 2.94 batting average across five games. 

Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+320)

In the first matchup of the day between the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks, Austin Riley is a great bet to hit a home run against the struggling Brandon Pfaadt.

Pfaadt ranks in just the third percentile in expected ERA this season (6.73), and he’s coming off an outing where he allowed eight earned runs without recording an out, pushing his season-long ERA to 5.05. Pfaadt had an ERA over 8.00 in the month of May.

As for Riley, he has fared well against the D-Backs righty in his MLB career, hitting .375 with a pair of doubles in eight at bats. This season, Riley has hit 10 homers while posting a .270/.328/.434 slash line.

Against right-handed pitching, Riley has hit eight of his 10 home runs while posting a .274 batting average. 

He’s a great target against Pfaadt, who has given up 12 homers in as many outings in 2025.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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