Mets vs. Orioles Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, July 10

The Mets are favored to take Game 1 of their doubleheader with Baltimore.

New York Mets starting pitcher David Peterson is an interesting prop target on Thursday. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles will kick off Thursday’s action in Major League Baseball with Game 1 of their doubleheader at 12:10 p.m. EST.

The Mets are favored in Game 1 of the doubleheader with David Peterson (3.18 ERA) on the mound against veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, who has a 5.47 ERA in 19 appearances this season. 

However, since returning to the rotation, Morton has led the O’s to wins in six of his last seven starts while posting a 2.97 ERA. Can he keep that momentum going into this afternoon matchup?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Thursday’s action. 

Mets vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (+108)
• Orioles +1.5 (-131)

Moneyline

• Mets: -150
• Orioles: +123

Total

• 9 (Over -119/Under -102)

Mets vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• New York: David Peterson (6-4, 3.18 ERA)
• Baltimore: Charlie Morton (5-7, 5.47 ERA)

Mets vs. Orioles How to Watch 

• Date: Thursday, July 10
• Time: 12:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network
• Mets record: 53-39
• Orioles record: 40-50

Mets vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• David Peterson 3+ Walks Allowed (+160)

If you’re looking for a plus-money prop in this matchup, Peterson’s walks prop is certainly a solid play.

The Mets lefty has walked three or more batters in nine of his 17 starts this season, and he’s done so in four straight outings. While the Orioles are in the bottom five in MLB in walks drawn, I still think they’ll be able to get on via the free pass on Thursday afternoon.

Peterson has given up just 93 hits in 102.0 innings of work, but he still has a WHIP of 1.27 because he’s walked 37 batters this season. The lefty ranks in just the 45th percentile amongst MLB pitchers in walk percentage in 2025. 

Mets vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets – Walk-Off Wagers – why the OVER is the play in the opening game of this doubleheader: 

In the opening game of the Mets-Orioles doubleheader, there is quite the pitching matchup.

Mets lefty David Peterson is on the mound against Baltimore’s veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, and neither pitcher is really worth trusting right now.

While Morton has led the O’s to wins in six of his last seven appearances, Baltimore also lost the first 12 games he pitched in this season.

Morton enters this start with a 5.47 ERA, and that’s despite him posting a 2.97 ERA over his last seven games (all starts).

Meanwhile, Peterson has solid numbers at face value (3.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), but he ranks in the 36th percentile in expected ERA (4.19) and the 20th percentile in expected batting average against (.272). 

With both of these pitchers showing signs that they aren’t as great as they’ve pitched recently, I’m leaning to the OVER in the first game of this doubleheader. 

While both of these teams have hit the UNDER more often in the 2025 season, Peterson has multiple outings with five runs allowed since the start of June and Morton was extremely shaky to start the season. 

The Mets have a loaded offense, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see both of these starters chased early on in Game 1. 

Pick: OVER 9 (-119 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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