Mets vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 30

Sean Treppedi | Jul 30, 2025

Yu Darvish has struggled to post consistent numbers since returning to the rotation this month. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The Padres took control of the series Tuesday night, riding Manny Machado’s three-run homer to a 7-1 rout over the Mets, while New York also lost Juan Soto to a foot injury. 

Clay Holmes (9-5, 3.40 ERA) takes the mound for New York in the finale on Wednesday, looking to build on a solid win over San Francisco where he allowed just one run across five innings. Holmes has been dependable, though his inability to pitch deep into games continues to be a concern.

Yu Darvish (0-3, 9.18 ERA) starts for San Diego, and he has really been nothing short of disastrous since returning from injury, giving up eight earned runs in just 3 ⅓ innings his last time out. We’ll get more into that below. 

Here’s our plays on the board for this one. 

Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (+152)
• Padres +1.5 (-184)

Moneyline

• Mets (-106)
• Padres (-110)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-108)
• Under 8.5 (-112)

Mets vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Mets: Clay Holmes (9-5, 3.40 ERA
• Padres: Yu Darvish (0-3, 9.18 ERA)

Mets vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 30, 2025
• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, Padres TV Network
• Mets Record: 62-46
• Padres Record: 59-49

Mets vs. Padres Prop Bet

Yu Darvish Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102 at FanDuel)

Darvish’s strikeout production has fallen off a cliff since returning this season — the veteran right-hander is mustering just 5.9 K/9 on the season. He managed only three punchouts in 3 ½ innings during his most recent outing, a brutal start in which he was tagged for eight earned runs by the Cardinals. Over his last three starts, he’s totaled just six strikeouts across 13 innings. With a bloated 1.80 WHIP and diminished command, Darvish is pitching to contact more often than not — and that makes the under a good route at -102 with a lineup of capable and hungry Mets hitters.

Mets vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

This is a classic bounce-back spot for the Mets, who had won seven straight before running into this Padres team. Holmes has struggled to rack up strikeouts as a starter, but he's been relatively effective in limiting damage and has posted a 3.32 ERA on the road.

Darvish, on the other hand, has been a liability — allowing 10.38 ERA over his last three starts while showing poor command and failing to go deep in games. The Mets’ offense may be missing Juan Soto, but they still possess enough punch to capitalize on Darvish’s mistakes at 108 wRC+ on the campaign (No. 7 overall).

Then there’s New York’s bullpen, which is a top-10 unit at a 3.82 ERA. It’s not the Padres’ No. 1 unit (2.99 ERA), but it can contend with them after several key arms will need rest after securing saves the last two days. 

Pick: Mets (-106 at FanDuel)

---

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your FanDuel Promo Code today.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.