Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Saturday, June 21

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Mets-Philadelphia Phillies matchup on June 21.

The Phillies are favored to win on Saturday. / Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The New York Mets’ June continues to get worse, as they’ve dropped seven games in a row to fall behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings.

New York dropped the series opener with the Phils on Friday night 10-2, and now it finds itself as an underdog on Saturday – even with Griffin Canning on the mound. 

Canning has led the Mets to a 10-4 record in his 14 outings this season, but his ERA has ballooned from 2.90 to 3.80 over his last two starts. Can he turn things around against a red-hot Phillies team?

It’s going to be tough, but the Phillies have a young starter in Mick Abel (2.21 ERA) on the mound for just the fifth time in the 2025 campaign.

Let’s examine the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this NL East showdown on Saturday night. 

Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (+144)
• Phillies +1.5 (-176)

Moneyline

• Mets: -106
• Phillies: -114

Total

• 10 (Over -108/Under -113)

Mets vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• New York: Griffin Canning (6-3, 3.80 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Mick Abel (2-0, 2.21 ERA)

Mets vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, June 21
• Time: 7:15 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Mets record: 45-31
• Phillies record: 46-30

Mets vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Mick Abel UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)

After striking out nine hitters in his MLB debt, Abel has recorded three or fewer K’s in each of his last three games. Overall, the veteran right-hander has 17 strikeouts in 20.1 innings of work, and he’s pitched 5.1 innings or less in three straight starts.

I can’t back him to get five or more strikeouts against a Mets team that is averaging just 7.83 punchouts per game. New York has struggled scoring over the last week (dead last in runs), but Abel hasn’t shown enough at the MLB level to expect him to clear this line, especially if he’s limited to around 15 outs. 

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Earlier on Saturday, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I think the Phillies are primed to pick up another win and extend their lead in the NL East:

The Philadelphia Phillies dominated the New York Mets in Game 1 of their three-game set behind a strong five innings from ace Zack Wheeler, and I love the Phils to take Game 2 of this series as well.

Youngster Mick Abel is on the mound on Saturday, and he’s looking to build on a strong start to his MLB career, where he’s posted a 2.21 ERA across four starts.

Meanwhile, the Mets are relying on Griffin Canning, who is starting to come back to earth after a strong start to 2025. The veteran right-hander has allowed 10 runs over his last two starts, pushing his ERA from 2.90 to 3.80 in the process. 

New York is 10-4 when Canning is on the mound this season, but I can’t trust the Mets offense at the moment. Over the last week, the Mets rank 28th in OPS, 26th in batting average and dead last in runs scored – leading to this seven-game skid.

Philly is rolling to get back into first place, and I think it gets Abel enough run support to win again on Saturday. 

Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-114 at DraftKings)

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