Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Mets-Phillies, Orioles-Yankees, Nationals-Dodgers)

Breaking down the best MLB bets for the action on Saturday, June 21, including a pick for the Phillies-Mets clash.

The Phillies are favored at home on Saturday. / Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Saturday’s MLB features all 30 teams in action, and there are a handful of afternoon starts that should allow bettors to immerse themselves in the action all day long.

I’m eyeing several bets for Saturday’s slate, including a pick for the rivalry matchup between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.

New York has dropped seven games in a row, allowing the Phils – who won yesterday’s series opener – to take over first place in the division.

In addition to that game, there are a couple of AL East and NL West teams that I’m eyeing for Saturday’s action.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the bets on June 21. 

MLB Best Bets for Saturday, June 21

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Boston Red Sox-San Francisco Giants OVER 8 (-102)
• New York Yankees Moneyline (-171) vs. Baltimore Orioles
• Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-114) vs. New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers-Washington Nationals First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-154)

Boston Red Sox-San Francisco Giants OVER 8 (-102)

The Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants combined for 12 runs in their series opener on Friday, and I think we could be in line for another high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon.

Boston will have Bryan Bello on the mound against San Francisco’s Landen Roupp, and neither of these starters gives me a ton of confidence that this will be a pitcher’s duel. 

Even though Bello has allowed three or fewer earned runs in five straight starts, his advanced numbers this season are terrible:

• 4.84 xERA (15th percentile)
• .281 xBAA (13th percentile)
• 17.3% strikeout percentage (16th percentile)

Overall, Bello still has a 3.49 ERA and a 4.27 Fielding Independent Pitching, allowing at least three runs in five of his 11 outings.

On the Giants side, Roupp has an expected ERA of 3.85 this season, and he’s struggled in his last two starts, allowing nine hits and nine runs in just 7.2 innings of work.

Boston has scored the sixth-most runs in MLB this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see it get to the young righty on Saturday. This total (set at 8) is a little too low for my liking in Game 2 of this three-game set. 

New York Yankees Moneyline (-171) vs. Baltimore Orioles

The New York Yankees lost again on Friday night – even with ace Max Fried on the mound – but I am buying them as a bounce-back candidate on Saturday.

Righty Clarke Schmidt is on the mound for New York and he’s been lights out as of late, posting a 2.38 ERA over his last nine starts. Schmidt ranks in the 91st percentile in expected ERA (2.77) and the 89th percentile in expected batting average against (.207) so far in 2025.

Meanwhile, Orioles righty Zach Eflin has struggled as of late, allowing seven runs and 12 hits in his last outing to push his ERA to 4.81 in the 2025 season.

Baltimore is 6-4 in his starts, but Eflin has allowed five or more runs in three of his last six outings. 

This New York offense – despite some recent struggles – is still one of the five best in several key statistics this season, including runs scored, OPS and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). 

With Schmidt dealing as of late, the Yankees are a prime bounce-back candidate on Saturday afternoon. 

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-114) vs. New York Mets

The Philadelphia Phillies dominated the New York Mets in Game 1 of their three-game set behind a strong five innings from ace Zack Wheeler, and I love the Phils to take Game 2 of this series as well.

Youngster Mick Abel is on the mound on Saturday, and he’s looking to build on a strong start to his MLB career, where he’s posted a 2.21 ERA across four starts.

Meanwhile, the Mets are relying on Griffin Canning, who is starting to come back to earth after a strong start to 2025. The veteran right-hander has allowed 10 runs over his last two starts, pushing his ERA from 2.90 to 3.80 in the process. 

New York is 10-4 when Canning is on the mound this season, but I can’t trust the Mets offense at the moment. Over the last week, the Mets rank 28th in OPS, 26th in batting average and dead last in runs scored – leading to this seven-game skid.

Philly is rolling to get back into first place, and I think it gets Abel enough run support to win again on Saturday. 

Los Angeles Dodgers-Washington Nationals First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-154)

The Los Angeles Dodgers picked up a 6-5 win in their series opener against the Washington Nationals on Friday, but I’m not looking to bet on a side in Saturday night’s matchup.

Instead, I’m eyeing the total in the first five innings, as I don’t trust either starting pitcher in this matchup.

Let’s start with Los Angeles’ Dustin May, who has struggled over his last 10 starts, posting a 5.50 ERA while allowing 60 hits in 55.2 innings of work. May ranks in just the 26th percentile in expected ERA and the 30th percentile in expected batting average against this season.

On the Nationals side, Jake Irvin enters this start with a 4.23 ERA, and he was tagged for four runs in six innings in a matchup with the Dodgers earlier this season. Irvin ranks in just the ninth percentile in expected ERA (5.24) so far this season.

So, I’m expecting a high-scoring game from the jump, something that Los Angeles has no problem doing this season. The Dodgers are No. 1 in MLB in wRC+ and have the best OVER record (45-31-1) in MLB.

There should be plenty of runs scored in the early innings on Saturday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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