Mets vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, May 19

The Mets are road favorites with Kodai Senga on the mound.

The Mets are road favorites with Kodai Senga on the mound. / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The New York Mets are facing yet another American League opponent on Monday after losing their weekend series with the New York Yankees.

The Mets travel to Boston to face the Boston Red Sox, but they have ace Kodai Senga (1.02 ERA) on the mound for the ninth time in 2025. 

Boston will counter with Hunter Dobbins, who has earned the win in two of his five outings in 2025. The Red Sox are shockingly in second in the AL East, but they still are two games under .500 and set as underdogs in this matchup.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my game prediction for Monday night.

Mets vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line 

• Mets -1.5 (+120)
• Red Sox +1.5 (-142)

Moneyline

• Mets: -130
• Red Sox: +110

Total

• 9 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mets vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

• New York: Kodai Senga (4-2, 1.02 ERA)
• Boston: Hunter Dobbins (2-1, 3.90 ERA)

Mets vs. Red Sox How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 19
• Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
• Venue: Fenway Park
• How to Watch (TV): NESN, SNY
• Mets record: 29-18
• Red Sox record: 23-25

Mets vs. Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Lindor is worth a look on Monday: 

Lindor didn’t have his best series against the New York Yankees, but I’m buying him on Monday against the Boston Red Sox and young starter Hunter Dobbins.

So far in 2025, Dobbins has given up 32 hits and three home runs in 27.2 innings of work. He’s allowed seven or more hits in three of his five outings, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Mets jump on him in this game.

Lindor has nine home runs this season, but most of them have come against right-handed pitching. He’s smacked eight of those homers against righties while batting an impressive .301. 

I think he’s a solid buy-low candidate on Monday.

Mets vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

It is shocking that the Mets are just 5-3 in Senga’s starts this season, as the righty has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all eight of his starts.

Meanwhile, Boston is sending a youngster to the mound in Dobbins, and he’s given up more hits (32) than innings pitched (27.2) despite having a 3.90 ERA.

Boston is in second place in the AL East, but it’s dropped six of its last 10 games and has just a plus-eight run differential. The Mets, on the other hand, are 11 games over .500 and have an insane run differential of plus-56. 

In this matchup, it comes down to the pitching staffs in my eyes, and New York has the better starter on the mound and a better bullpen ERA in the 2025 season, even though the ‘pen was knocked around by the New York Yankees on Sunday.

I can’t fade Senga in this spot with how consistent he’s been in 2025. 

Pick: Mets Moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.