Mexico Open Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Akshay Bhatia to Win as Favorite

SI Golf staff | Feb 19, 2025

Two of our betting panelists are on Akshay Bhatia to win the Mexico Open. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

After a near miss on Patrick Rodgers at 200-1 to win the Genesis, the SI Golf Betting panel is still searching for its first outright win after two events. Iain MacMillan is 2-0 on his prop bet picks and in plus money. Our process is getting us closer to nailing a winner and this week’s Mexico Open offers another chance to cash in with two panelists betting on the favorite.

The panel includes SI golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, FanSided senior editor and golf bettor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. 

Iain has been the hot hand to tail thus far as he’s up 0.4 units thanks to his perfect prop record. Giuffra hit one prop but was shut out last week and is down 6.17 units. The rest of the panel is still looking for its first win and are down 8.0 units. 

This is a long game, however, as we're betting on every golf event through the Tour Championship and we remain confident we’re on the verge of a breakthrough. Here are our picks for the Mexico Open, including outright, longshot, first-round leader and prop picks. Explanations on the picks are below.

Mexico Open betting picks. / Sports Illustrated

Outright Pick 

Iain MacMillan: Patrick Rodgers (+2200, DraftKings)

I was close to hitting Rodgers as a 200-1 long shot at the Genesis Invitational last week, but I’m back on him in a much weaker field this week. Rodgers’ style of play fit Vidanta to perfection and he has finished in the top 10 at this event in three straight seasons. I wasn’t wrong about Rodgers, I may have just been early. This could be the week he gets his first PGA Tour win.

Matt Vincenzi: Akshay Bhatia (+1400, DraftKings):

A lot will have to go wrong for Akshay Bhatia to not contend this week at Vidanta Vallarta. The smooth-swinging lefty currently has his ball on a string off the tee and is the most talented player in the field by a significant margin. Bhatia has had a great deal of success on paspalum and ranks 4th in strokes-gained total on the surface. He struck the ball at an elite level last week at Torrey Pines and should be able to pick apart the golf course this week in Mexico. 

John Schwarb: Akshay Bhatia (+1400, DraftKings)

Betting chalk is no way to long-term success in golf betting, but I don’t lose sleep over taking Scottie Scheffler last week or taking a favorite in Mexico. Bhatia has had a solid 2025, peaking so far with a T9 at the stacked Genesis. Moving down in class to this field, it’s time to get career win No. 3.

Brian Kirschner: Niklas Norgaard (+4000, FanDuel) 

I would not blame you for not knowing who this golfer is, but I think he has serious potential to get a win this year in his rookie PGA Tour season. Norgaard got his tour card through the DP World Tour last year where he won the Betfred British Masters and had seven top 10 finishes. Norgaard is known for his power OTT as he has one of the highest ball speeds on tour. I believe that Mexico should be a good course fit for him and could be his coming out party.

Cody Williams: Kurt Kitayama (+2200, FanDuel)

Kurt Kitayama has one start at the Mexico Open, which was a tied-runner-up finish behind Jon Rahm in 2022. While his results this year have left a lot to be desired, he’s leading this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds with the driving distance and ball-striking needed to win here. The short game is always a worry but, with his past performance on these greens, this feels like the time for him to pop and win with how he’s striking it. 

Brian Giuffra: Stephen Jaeger (+2500, FanDuel)

Jaeger has been inaccurate off the tee this year, but Vidanta has the fifth-widest fairways on tour. In a similar situation the Sony Open this year, Jaeger finished T3. Jaeger also finished T3 at the Mexico Open last year and was T18 and T15 the previous two. Clearly, he likes this course. The other reason I like Jaeger this week is he has a history of good performances at courses like this, including his Houston Open win last year at Memorial Park. 

Longshot Pick 

Iain MacMillan: Kris Ventura  (+9000, FanDuel)

When looking for a long-shot bet to win at Vidanta, look for a golfer that is long off the tee and solid with their approach shots from 200+ yards. Kris Ventura checks both those boxes, ranking 17th in driving distance and 54th in approaches from 200+ yards. He also posted a T4 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open a few weeks back so he should be able to compete in this week’s inferior field of competition.

Matt Vincenzi: Aldrich Potgieter (+8000, DraftKings)

I had this spot on the schedule circled for Aldrich Potgieter ever since he earned his PGA Tour card. Vidanta Vallarta is a track that rewards distance off the tee and Aldrich can get away with a few errant tee shots here and there. As evidenced by getting into the final group at Torrey Pines, the South African is a mega talent who is going to be a superstar someday. Even at 20 years old, he can win this tournament. 

John Schwarb: Luke List (+11000, FanDuel)

I’m just going to go fishing in Puerto Vallarta with a 40-year-old who can still move it out there (29th in driving distance) and has multiple Tour wins on his resume. List is a boom-or-bust type—a year ago he missed half his cuts but was also T2 at the Genesis. At his age, he’s going to have to make hay at events with so-so fields like this one. 

Brian Kirschner: Chris Gotterup (+8000, FanDuel) 

I think that this is a great price for a PGA Tour winner considering the field this week. Chris won the Myrtle Beach Classic last spring in a similar field and has shown signs of good play so far this year. Gotterup finished 25th at Torrey Pines this year, which has shown to be a sign of things to come here with the winner Jake Knapp last year. It is very well known it is imperative to have driving distance and Chris has that in spades as he ranks first in driving distance in this field. 

Cody Williams: Hayden Springer (+11000, FanDuel)

Hayden Springer has the right juice, it would seem, to make a run in a weak field at Vidanta. He finished solo sixth at the Farmers and gained nearly 4 strokes tee-to-green when he played this tournament last year. The short game bit him overall but it’s worth noting he was positive with the putter in the final two rounds. For a player who’s plenty long and has torn up easy golf courses historically, he’s sixth in the field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and could have tremendous upside. 

Brian Giuffra: Carson Young (+7500, FanDuel)

Young has been one of the best putters this year and that could prove critical on a course with the 10th-largest greens on Tour. It should also help him with his approach, which has been, admittedly, poor this season. But he’s a great driver, which is important on this course, and the large greens should emphasize the best part of his game. 

First-Round Leader Pick

Iain MacMillan: Antoine Rozner (+7000, FanDuel)

Rozner hasn’t teed it up at Vidanta before but his style of play fits the course. He’s long off the tee and we’ve seen some solid flashes from his approach play of late, including at this month’s Commercial Bank Qatar Masters when he finished solo fourth. Rozner has also shown his best stuff in the opening round on the PGA Tour this season, ranking second in Round 1 scoring average at 67.00.

Matt Vincenzi: Ricky Castillo (+7500, DraftKings)

Ricky Castillo has gone under the radar since turning pro but is an incredibly intriguing prospect. The former Florida Gator was an extremely decorated college player and has the right skill set to go low at Vidanta Vallarta. 

John Schwarb: Michael Kim (+4000, FanDuel)

He doesn’t fit the bomber profile for VidantaWorld, but Michael Kim is having a bit of a moment with a T13 last week at the Genesis and a T2 in Phoenix. I’ll take his all-around solid game to get off to a fast start here and look forward to another insightful week on his social media.

Brian Kirschner: Carson Young (+6500, DraftKings) 

I am a big fan of Carson’s game and see him as the perfect FRL candidate this week. Although he has not had a great year thus far, he has some great comp course history. Runner up at El Cardonal at Diamante earlier this fall and 5th at the John Deere, Carson is perfect when the course yields a ton of birdies. Carson also finished 8th at this event last year, gaining in all areas of the game. I expect a low first round for Carson. 

Cody Williams: Ryan Fox (+6000, FanDuel)

I’m not going to lie to you, this is all gut feel considering that Ryan Fox has just two Top 20 finishes since August 2024. But over his last 24 rounds, Fox still ranks 18th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green while being third in driving distance, first in SG: Par 5 and 12th in Birdie or Better Percentage over that same span. He’s a guy who can get hot and score in bunches and is now at a course that should embrace his superpower off the tee. 

Brian Giuffra: Michael Thorbjornsen (+6000, DraftKings)

Thorbjornsen, in his second season on tour, is one of the longest drivers out there but is still inconsistent off the tee. That hasn’t stopped him from gaining shots on his approach and averaging 4.11 birdies per round. When he’s played well this season, it’s been in the early rounds and the same was true in his debut season. He has the game to go low, and on a wide course where length is critical, I’m willing to take a swing on him to get off to a hot start in Mexico. 

Favorite Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Kevin Yu (-120) vs. C.T. Pan (DraftKings)

I’m looking at a matchup bet for this week’s prop. Kevin Yu comes into this event in great form after posting a T16 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T17 finish at the Genesis Invitational. His length off the tee is going to give him a solid advantage in Mexico. Meanwhile, C.T. Pan is being overvalued this week based on his T3 finish at this event last year. I believe that performance is an outlier as Pan, who is one of the shortest hitters on Tour, usually struggles at long courses.  Yu, based on the style of play and recent performances, should be able to take down Pan in a head-to-head.

Matt Vincenzi: Stephan Jaeger Top 10 (+280, FanDuel)

With finishes of T15, T18, T3 in his three trips to the golf course, Stephan Jaeger has proven that he has an extremely high floor in this tournament. He struggled putting at Torrey Pines last week but struck the ball beautifully. The German should be in store for a bounce-back week at a spot on the schedule he loves.

John Schwarb: Akshay Bhatia Top 20 (-110 DraftKings)

I want to cash a ticket this week and am going to keep it simple, figuring the tournament favorite will at the very least hang around all weekend near the top.

Brian Kirschner: Hayden Springer Top 20 +300 (DraftKings) 

Springer has everything I am looking for this week. Elite birdie making ability, power OTT and results in low-scoring events. Coming off a quiet T6 at the Farmers, I like his form coming in. Springer carded a 59 earlier this year at the John Deere Classic and is no stranger to going low. +300 for a top 20 seems like great value to me. 

Cody Williams: Carson Young Top 20 (+250 BetMGM)

Carson Young is trending in all the right ways and now returns to a spot where he finished T8 last year and T15 the year before. He’s also played extremely well on these resort-style courses with a tied-runner-up and ninth-place finish at El Cardona to his credit. After a career-best putting week in Phoenix and being one of the best ball-strikers in the field at the AmEx in January, there’s a boatload of value to eye him for a Top 20 finish this week. 

Brian Giuffra: Patrick Rodgers Top 10 (+260 FanDuel)

Rodgers is coming off a T3 at the Genesis and returning to a course he’s had plenty of success at. He was T6 last year and T10 in 2023 and 10th in 2022. He putts well on this surface and has been outstanding tee to green here. I usually like to play closer to even money for props, but this number is too enticing to pass up. 

Final Score Prediction

• Iain MacMillan: -21
• Matt Vincenzi: -19
• John Schwarb: -20
• Brian Kirschner: -18
• Cody Williams: -22
• Brian Giuffra: -19