Miami vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Miami-Florida State matchup in Week 6 of the college football season.

The Miami Hurricanes and quarterback Carson Beck are favored in Week 6. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Carson Beck and the Miami Hurricanes are looking to stay undefeated when they take on the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles and Tommy Castellanos in Week 6 of the college football season.

The Hurricanes are favored on the road in this matchup after Florida State lost in double overtime to Virginia on Friday night in Week 5. The Seminoles have already knocked off Alabama this season, and they’d love to get back in the win column against a top-five team on Saturday.

Beck has put together a bit of a renaissance in his first season with Miami, showing that he could be an NFL prospect after a down 2024 season at Georgia. Miami has wins over Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida early on this season, and it’s only allowed 22 points over the last three games.

Castellanos is going to be tough to contain, but oddsmakers still think the Hurricanes move to 5-0.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this Week 6 battle between top-25 teams. 

Miami vs. Florida State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Miami -4.5 (-108)
• Florida State +4.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Miami: -185
• Florida State: +154

Total

• 54.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Miami vs. Florida State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Miami record: 4-0
• Florida State record: 3-1

Miami vs. Florida State Key Player to Watch

Carson Beck, Quarterback, Miami

This season, Beck leads the ACC in completion percentage (73.2 percent), but he has thrown three interceptions in four games.

The Hurricanes quarterback has led the team to a 4-0 start, throwing seven scores while nearly hitting 1,000 passing yards to date. The Florida State defense is pretty solid (41st in the country in EPA/Play), but it does rank just 72nd in EPA/Pass. 

Miami is hoping that Beck can take advantage through the air since the Seminoles are giving up just 3.2 yards per carry in 2025. 

Miami vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

Florida State came into the season unranked, but an upset of Alabama immediately put the team on the College Football Playoff radar.

That hype has cooled after the loss to unranked Virginia in Week 5, and I think the Seminoles – even at home – may be a little overvalued in this matchup.

Florida State padded its numbers after the Alabama win, facing Kent State and East Texas A&M, outscoring those teams 143-13. 

However, in an ACC matchup, the Seminoles struggled to get stops and eventually lost in double overtime.

Castellanos is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, but he’s now facing a Miami defense that is 24th in the country in EPA/Play and ninth in the country in defensive success rate against the run. That’s going to be tough for a Florida State team that relies heavily on the ground game (6.7 yards per carry) this season.

Ultimately, Miami is the more talented squad, and it has proven that against multiple ranked opponents in 2025. 

I am worried that the market is overvaluing Florida State for a Week 1 win, when in reality it’s a fringe contender in the ACC. Castellanos has proven people wrong before, but I’m willing to take a chance that Florida State’s impressive advanced profile has been aided by an easy schedule. 

Pick: Miami -4.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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