Michigan State vs. Iowa Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Thursday, March 6

Reed Wallach | Mar 5, 2025

Michigan State's Jase Richardson makes a 3-pointer against Wisconsin during the second half on Sunday, March 2, 2025, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan State is in line to capture the Big Ten regular season title and will look to further its standing as a top seed in the NCAA Tournament with a road win and cover against an Iowa team that is playing out the string of its season. 

The Hawkeyes have been riddled with injuries, while the Spartans have emerged as one of the most complete rosters in college basketball, flush with depth and some of the best rebounding metrics in the country. 

With a perceived talent gap, what’s the best way to bet this game/ Here’s our betting preview. 

Michigan State vs. Iowa Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Michigan State: -6.5 (-110)
• Iowa: +6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Michigan State: -295
• Iowa: +230

Total: 152.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Michigan State vs. Iowa How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 6th
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Carver-Hawkeye Arena
• How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1
• Michigan State Record: 24-5
• Iowa Record: 15-14
  

Michigan State vs. Iowa Key Players to Watch

Michigan State

Jase Richardson: The freshman continues to dazzle, getting more and more reps as the team’s on-ball creator as the season goes on. He is fresh off another stand-out performance, scoring 11 points with five rebounds and six assists against Wisconsin. 

Iowa

Josh Dix: Will somebody get going from the perimeter against Michigan State? The Spartans are holding teams to 26% three-point shooting in Big Ten play, but if someone can get hot, it’s Dix. The junior guard is shooting 42% from three-point range on the year as the Hawkeyes offense has remained one of the most potent in the country despite a poor win-loss record. 

Michigan State vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

While Iowa remains an elite offense and a porous defense, the team is third in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric in Big Ten play and last on the defensive side of the ball. The team has been a great bet to the under. The Hawkeyes have been overrated in the totals market, going under in seven of the last 10 games. 

The team will face a Michigan State team that is a top-five rebounding unit in the country that tries to push the pace and beat the defense down the court to offset its putrid perimeter shooting that is in the bottom 20 in the country. The Spartans have clear paths to offense, but Iowa grades out as a sturdy transition defense, which can lead to the team underperforming expectations. 

Meanwhile, while Sparty is a poor three-point shooting team, the team more than makes up for it on defense, being fourth in the country in three-point percentage allowed. Iowa’s offense has lofty metrics under head coach Fran McCaffrey, but the attrition of a down year has taken its toll. The team is 161st in effective field goal percentage since February 1st, per Bart Torvik. 

Overall, I’ll fade both offenses on Thursday night as Michigan State has gone under in nine of the last 10 games, but its fast pace has led to totals in the high 140s and low 150s. 

PICK: UNDER 153.5 (-110, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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