Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Mississippi State is 5-0 against the spread this season.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and quarterback Blake Shapen are perfect against the spread this season. / Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

The Texas A&M Aggies are looking to remain undefeated in the 2025 season when they take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 6 of the college football season.

Texas A&M has climbed to No. 6 in the country with wins over Notre Dame and Auburn over the last two weeks, but it hasn't exactly done it in dominant fashion. The Aggies won by just one against the Fighting Irish before beating Auburn by six points in Week 5. 

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs beat then-No. 12 Arizona State in Week 2 and took a ranked Tennessee team to overtime in Week 5. 

Despite that, oddsmakers have set the Bulldogs as 14-point road underdogs in Week 6. Are they undervalued in this SEC battle?

Here's a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this game on Saturday night. 

Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Mississippi State +14 (-105)
• Texas A&M -14 (-115)

Moneyline

• Mississippi State: +440
• Texas A&M: -600

Total

• 55.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kyle Field
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• Mississippi State record: 4-1 
• Texas A&M record: 4-0

Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Key Player to Watch

Marcel Reed, Quarterback, Texas A&M

This season, Reed has been impressive for the Aggies as a dual-threat quarterback, throwing for 1076 yards and nine scores (just two picks) while rushing for 119 yards and a score.

Reed is completing just over 60 percent of his passes, and the Aggies certainly would love to see that number increase as the season goes along. 

Mississippi State has been solid this season, but it does rank just 69th in the country in EPA/Pass. After scoring just 16 points in Week 5, the Aggies may need a bigger game from Reed to hold off the Bulldogs – who have been really solid in 2025 – in this matchup.  

Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

The Bulldogs are dealing with some injuries to their offensive line, but veteran quarterback Blake Shapen is more than capable of keeping Mississippi State in this game.

He’s thrown for 1,064 yards and eight scores this season while completing 65.9 percent of his passes, and the Bulldogs are a perfect 5-0 against the spread as a result.

As for Texas A&M, it’s been a tough team to bet on under head coach Mike Elko. The Aggies are just 4-13 over the last two seasons against the spread, and I think this number is a little too generous after Texas A&M won by one and six points in its last two games.

Mississippi State actually outranks Texas A&M in Net EPA/Play (26th vs. 36th) this season, and the Bulldogs have one of the more reliable running games in the country, averaging 4.8 yards per carry while ranking third in success rate on rushing plays. 

While Texas A&M likely wins this game, I think two touchdowns is a little steep of a price. Shapen has kept the Bulldogs in every game, and their lone loss was in overtime.

I’ll take the points in this SEC matchup. 

Pick: Mississippi State +14 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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