Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Xbox Bowl

Can Missouri State beat Arkansas State for the first time?

Jaylen Raynor and Arkansas State are favored against Missouri State on Tuesday. / Mickey Welsh / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Xbox Bowl will make its college football debut this year. Arkansas State will enter its Thursday matchup against Missouri State as a 2.5-point favorite. The Red Wolves hold a 2-0 lead in the all-time series and steamrolled the Bears 70-7 the last time these two teams met in 2015.

Few teams have thrown the ball more than Arkansas State this year. The Red Wolves’ Jaylen Raynor has attempted 470 passes. Only five FBS quarterbacks can top that mark, but he’s only thrown for 16 scores this season. Missouri State has been much more efficient when it comes to converting passing attempts to touchdowns. That could give the underdogs an edge.

Here’s our full betting breakdown for the game.

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Missouri State: +2.5 (-105)
• Arkansas State: -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Missouri State: +114
• Arkansas State: -137

Total: 56.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, December 18
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: Ford Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Missouri State: 7-5
• Arkansas State: 6-6

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Key Players to Watch

Missouri State

Jacob Clark: Clark has amassed 24 passing touchdowns with 129 fewer passing attempts than Raynor. The senior signal-caller’s passing yardage total sits at 2,895 and he’s thrown for multiple scores in six straight contests. Finishing drives with seven points as opposed to three can help the Bears stay in the hunt.

Arkansas State

Jaylen Raynor: Raynor ranks 19th in the country with 3,073 passing yards. He has 11 interceptions to go along with his 16 touchdown passes, but has played a major role in his team’s wins this year. The third-year quarterback has tallied more than 330 passing yards in three games this season and won two of those contests. He has a team-high seven rushing scores, but hasn’t reached the end zone with his legs in four games.

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Prediction and Pick

The Bears and Red Wolves are about even against the spread, but there’s a trend worth taking advantage of when it comes to the total in this contest.

The UNDER is a combined 8-16 in games featuring these teams this year. Both teams have endured stretches where the UNDER has hit in eight consecutive contests this season. Point production away from home has a lot to do with that.

Neither team has played at a neutral venue this year and both are averaging less than 23.0 points per game away from home. The UNDER can hit with plenty of room to spare if at least one of these teams tightens up on offense in the big-game environment at a field neither side is familiar with.

PICK: Under 56.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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