Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Back the Orioles vs. the Yankees for Plus-Money Tonight)

Breaking down the best bet to place in Major League Baseball for the action on Tuesday, June 18.
 Jun 4, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Adley Rutschman (35) congratulates first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (6) after his two run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 4, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Adley Rutschman (35) congratulates first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (6) after his two run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports / John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Am I crazy to be fading the winningest team in baseball at home?  Maybe. But, by now, you know my style, so stay with me for a bit. Our bankroll has been growing. 

Yes, the Yankees are the best team in baseball right now and the only team with 50 wins. They will also be sending Nestor Cortes to the mound, and he's been stellar at home.   When pitching at home this season, Cortes has a mere 1.77 ERA. That's dominant.  

Juan Soto is back in the lineup, and Aaron Judge is doing Aaron Judge things. He's batting .300 with 26 home runs, which is on pace to match and possibly eclipse his record-setting 62 home run MVP season.   

Jun 11, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a two-run home run in the seventh inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 11, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a two-run home run in the seventh inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports / Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Those are just a few reasons to back the favorites in this game. 

Now, hear me out on the case for the underdogs tonight.

MLB Best Bet Today

The Orioles are a frisky young team and just 1.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. This win would put them within half a game. 

They will want this. Yankee Stadium is not an easy place to play, but it's worth noting that the Orioles have a better win percentage on the road this season (22-10) than they do at home (25-14). It's also worth noting that Baltimore has won three of four games played vs. the Yankees this year and that the Orioles have the second-best win percentage in MLB as away underdogs (6-3). 

Albert Suarez takes the mound for the O's tonight.  

Suarez has been excellent in his seven starts for Baltimore this season, and he has allowed a minuscule .20 home runs per nine this season across 44 ⅔ innings pitched.  He has an ERA of just 1.61, with a 35% ground ball rate and an 84% strand rate. 

Both teams have been hitting well recently, but the Orioles have a league-leading 35 home runs in June and are, particularly good vs. left-handed pitching. The Birds have a .195 ISO vs. southpaws this season. 

Look for catcher Adley Rutschman to have success tonight vs. Cortes. The last time he faced Cortes on April 30th, he had a pair of hits, and he is hitting .420 vs. lefties this season.

Cortes allowed four earned runs in that game and took the loss.

So, there you have it. Will the Yankees (-155) win tonight? Maybe.

But it's not a sure enough thing to pay that juice. Give me the O's for plus money (+130).

Pick: Orioles Moneyline (+130)


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Jennifer Piacenti

JENNIFER PIACENTI

In addition to being a fantasy sports and betting analyst at Sports Illustrated, Jennifer is a radio host for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, and she hosts her own podcast, “Waiver Wired” on the Extra Points podcast network. Jennifer has been nominated for multiple FSWA awards for her NFL DFS video series. She’s a Scott Fish Bowl Finalist, and she finished third overall in the 2021 NFFC post-season mini. Jennifer is also a featured expert on MLB Network’s “Bettor’s Eye,” and a member of the esteemed Tout Wars, the fantasy baseball battle of the experts.