Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Dodgers-Marlins, Cole Ragans, Reds-Braves)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Monday, May 5, including a pick for Royals ace Cole Ragans.

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Cole Ragans is a solid prop target on Monday. / Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Monday’s Major League Baseball action features 10 games and a bunch of new series opening up, including a marquee matchup between the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres – two teams that have gotten off to solid starts in 2025.

While I’m not targeting that game for one of today’s best bets, I do have three plays to consider, including a player prop pick for Kansas City Royals lefty Cole Ragans against the Chicago White Sox.

In addition to that, there is a veteran pitcher – and former Cy Young award winner – that bettors need to keep fading, especially in a tough matchup on Monday.

Let’s break down each of today’s picks to start the week out on a high note! 

MLB Best Bets for Monday, May 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) vs. Miami Marlins
• Cole Ragans OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-160)
• Cincinnati Reds-Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-120)

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) vs. Miami Marlins

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins are matching up for the second time in as many weeks, which means we have a pretty decent sample size of how these teams have fared against each other. 

The Dodgers, who have won seven of their last eight games, swept the Marlins last week, scoring 34 runs across three games including two games with at least 12 runs. 

On Monday, they’ll take on Sandy Alcantara, who has been struggling mightily for Miami, posting a 8.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP across six starts. He was the starter in Miami’s 15-2 loss to L.A. last week, giving up seven runs, seven hits and five walks across just 2.2 innings of work.

I’m not buying Alcantara to turn things around, and the Dodgers should be able to slow down this Marlins team by going with a bullpen game. Ben Casparius (2.91 ERA) will get the start in this one, but the Dodgers have a bullpen ERA of 3.53 for the season – one of the 10-best marks in all of baseball. 

Miami has dropped eight of its last 10, slipping to last in the NL East while posting a minus-54 run differential. I have to back the Dodgers to win this game convincingly on Monday.  

Cole Ragans OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Ragans, the Royals’ ace, has not gotten off to a great start in terms of his record or ERA, going 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA in six outings in 2025. However, he had been pitching well before getting knocked around in his last two outings, allowing nine runs across 7.0 innings of work.

Despite those struggles, Ragans is still punching out batters at a high rate, picking up at least eight K’s in four of his six starts and double-digit strikeouts in three outings.

On Monday, he’s in a bounce-back spot against the White Sox, who are averaging 8.44 K’s per game and are just 10-24 in the 2025 season.

Even in one of his bad outings – when he lasted just four innings – Ragans had eight punchouts. I expect him to clear 6.5 K’s with ease against one of the worst teams in MLB. 

Cincinnati Reds-Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-120)

After a slow start to the 2025 season, the Atlanta Braves have picked things up recently, knocking off the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday night to avoid a sweep.

Over the last 15 days, the Braves are No. 11 in OPS, No. 11 in batting average and No. 10 in runs scored. During that same stretch, the Cincinnati Reds, their opponent on Monday, rank No. 7 in OPS, No. 5 in batting average and No. 2 in runs scored.

Could we be in line for a high-scoring affair on Monday?

I think we can, especially in the early innings with Brady Singer on the bump for the Reds and AJ Smith-Shawver toeing the rubber for the Braves.

This season, Singer has given up at least two runs in four of his six starts, and he ranks in just the 56th percentile in expected ERA, according to Statcast. On the Braves’ side, Smith-Shawver has allowed at least two earned runs in every outing, working through five innings twice.

He has an ERA north of 4.00 and is in just the sixth percentile in expected ERA. So, I wouldn't be shocked to see a strong Reds offense jump on him in the early going.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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