Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Mets-Braves, Padres-Dodgers, Phillies-Marlins)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Tuesday, June 17, including a pick for the Atlanta Braves-New York Mets matchup.

The Mets are underdogs against the Braves on Tuesday. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

After a shortened slate of Monday, all 30 teams in Major League Baseball are in action on Tuesday, June 17.

As the season nears its midway point, there are a lot of trends that have popped up and certain starting pitchers to trust – and to fade.

On Tuesday, I’m looking to bet on one total, one player prop and one side, including a pick for the rivalry matchup between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. 

The Mets have a significant lead on Atlanta in the NL East, but the Philadelphia Phillies – another team I’m betting on today – are just two games behind New York.

Here’s a full breakdown of the best MLB bets to place for Tuesday’s action. 

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, June 17

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Mets-Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-125)
• Randy Vasquez UNDER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-110)
• Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-188) vs. Miami Marlins

New York Mets-Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-125)

Tuesday’s pitching matchup between the Mets and Braves features David Peterson (2.49 ERA) and Spencer Schwellenbach (3.11 ERA).

Peterson has been lights out as of late, tossing a shutout in his last start, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in every game in the 2025 season. The lefty has an expected ERA of 3.64, but he ranks in the 94th percentile in ground-ball percentage and 82nd percentile in barrel percentage this season.

As for Schwellenbach, he has a few more outings where he’s allowed three or more runs, but he has an expected ERA of 3.52 and ranks in the 93rd percentile in chase rate. Schwellenbach also pitched a complete game in his last outing, allowing just two runs and five hits in a Braves win.

I expect both of these starters to keep things in check in the early innings.

Randy Vasquez UNDER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-110)

San Diego Padres starter Randy Vasquez is making his second straight start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he fared well against them last week, pitching 4.2 innings of two-hit, one-run ball.

However, the Padres lifted him before he got through five frames, something that has happened in each of his last three outings.

In fact, Vasquez has seven starts where he’s recorded 14 outs or less in the 2025 season. Even though the youngster has a 3.57 ERA, he ranks in just the fourth percentile in expected ERA (5.91). On top of that, Vasquez has a WHIP that is pushing 1.40 this season, so it’s a bit of surprise that he limited baserunners in his last outing against Los Angeles.

I have a hard time trusting the Padres starter to go deep into Tuesday’s game against an offense that ranks No. 1 in MLB in OPS, batting average and runs scored. 

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-188) vs. Miami Marlins

After two terrible starts where it appeared that Philadelphia Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo was tipping his pitches, he got back on track in his last outing, tossing six innings of one-run ball in a win over the Chicago Cubs.

Jesús Luzardo, Changeups (both with a runner on 2B)

Old hand position is in Red outline. pic.twitter.com/wvZLl6K4AS

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 11, 2025

I’m betting on Luzardo to remain hot on Tuesday against the Miami Marlins, who are 14 games under .500 and rank just 19th in MLB in OPS this season.

Despite his two down outings, Luzardo still has a 4.23 ERA and 2.65 FIP this season, ranking in the 68th percentile in expected ERA.

I expect him to outduel Cal Quantrill, who enters this start with a 5.61 ERA for the Marlins, leading them to a 6-7 record in his 13 outings. Quantrill ranks in the 11th percentile in expected ERA at 5.20.

The Phillies have won five games in a row to get back in the mix for first in the NL East, and I expect that streak to continue on the road tonight.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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