Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Tigers-Pirates, Aaron Judge, Twins-Dodgers)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Monday, July 21, including a player prop for Aaron Judge.

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is a great prop target on Monday. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The second half of the 2025 MLB season is in full swing, and the second series post-All-Star break is here for every team.

So, let’s place some MLB bets! 

I’m betting on all the stars you can think of on Monday night, as Paul Skenes is on the mound in the Pittsburgh Pirates-Detroit Tigers matchup, and I have a player prop for New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge against a pitcher he has crushed in his MLB career.

To close out the night, why don’t we bet on Shohei Ohtani’s start against the Minnesota Twins?

Let’s explore why these players are at the forefront of Monday’s best bets, including the latest odds and breakdown of each of these games. 

MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 21

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Detroit Tigers-Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7 (-109)
• Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
• Los Angeles Dodgers First 3 Innings (-195) vs. Minnesota Twins

Detroit Tigers-Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7 (-109)

The Pirates have failed to give Paul Skenes enough run support all season long, and that has remained the case in June.

In three starts this month, Skenes has received two total runs of support, and he’s 0-1 over that stretch despite allowing just two earned runs himself. 

In Skenes’ starts this season, Pittsburgh has combined for seven or fewer runs 13 times (in 20 total outings), and I’m expecting a similar result on Monday.

Skenes will take on the Detroit Tigers and Jack Flaherty (4.65 ERA), who are looking to build their lead atop the AL Central. 

Detroit has been one of the better OVER teams in MLB (51-46-3) this season, but I think the UNDER is the bet to make in this matchup.

Not only have the Pirates hit the UNDER at a 57.7 percent clip this season (56-41-3), but they rank last in MLB in runs scored and OPS while posting the 28th-best batting average.

With Skenes on the mound, the Pirates should be able to keep the Tigers in check, as the All-Star starter has allowed more than two earned runs in just three of his 20 starts this season. 

I’ll trust Skenes to keep the Tigers’ offense in check, but I don’t expect him to get enough run support to make the Pirates a worthwhile bet to win this game outright. 

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100)

Why not dive into some player prop action on Monday?

The Yankees and Aaron Judge are three games out of first place in the AL East entering tonight’s matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays, but it’s a matchup that Judge should thrive in.

Toronto is starting Kevin Gausman in this game, and he has not fared well against the reigning AL MVP during his career.

Judge is 16-for-43 (.372) with three doubles, six home runs, 12 runs batted in and 10 walks against Gausman in his career. He has compiled an insane 1.370 OPS against the Blue Jays starter, and I expect him to keep that going on Monday night.

So far this season. Judge is hitting .352 with an MLB-best 128 hits. He is a great bet at even money to record two total bases on Monday.  

Los Angeles Dodgers First 3 Innings (-195) vs. Minnesota Twins

Shohei Ohtani is on the mound for the sixth time in the 2025 season on Monday, but bettors shouldn’t expect him to work too deep into his matchup against the Minnesota Twins.

Ohtani has thrown just 9.0 innings across five starts, but he did pitch three innings in his last outing back on July 12 against the San Francisco Giants. 

On Monday, Ohtani and the Dodgers take on Twins starter David Festa, who enters this start with a 5.25 ERA in 10 appearances in 2025. I have a hard time trusting Festa in this matchup, as he ranks in the 19th percentile in expected ERA and the 15th percentile in barrel percentage in the 2025 season.

Since we don’t know how long Ohtani will pitch in this game, I’m leaning with a bet on the first three innings of Monday’s series opener.

The Dodgers have a bit of a shaky bullpen (4.39 ERA), but Ohtani has been lights out in 2025, allowing just one run and five hits across his five outings. He should be able to keep the Twins in check, especially after Minnesota dropped two of three games to the Colorado Rockies out of the All-Star break.

This isn’t the best price at -195, but the Dodgers should roll against Festa in this matchup.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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