Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Wild Card Game 3s)

There are three winner-take-all Game 3s on the docket on Thursday, October 2.

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon gets the start in a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday afternoon. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Three more teams will be eliminated as there are a trio of Game 3s on the docket on Thursday.

The Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres, and New York Yankees all won on Wednesday night to force winner-take-all Game 3s in the Wild Card round.

My best bets for today are looking at an under, a home favorite, and a road underdog.

Let’s get right into the best bets – and their odds at the best betting sites – for Thursday, October 2.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, Oct. 2

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers UNDER 7 (-118)
• Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-120) vs. San Diego Padres
• Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+135) at New York Yankees

 Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers UNDER 7 (-118)

I broke down this best bet in the Tigers vs. Guardians betting preview:

The Tigers and Guardians are two teams that simply won’t put up many runs on the board. In eight meetings since September 16, only one had more than seven runs – that was the first matchup, a 7-5 Cleveland win.

Since then, Cleveland has outscored Detroit 26-11 in seven games. That is a total of 37 runs for an average of 5.28 runs per game.

Things tighten up in the postseason as shown by both of these teams struggling to get runners on, and then failing to get them home when they do have ducks on the pond.

The starting pitching matchup does make me a bit hesitant to take the Under, but Cecconi allowed three runs in 12 innings against Detroit this season and Flaherty allowed seven runs in 16 innings. 

This should be yet another low-scoring matchup in Cleveland.

Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-120) vs. San Diego Padres

I broke down this best bet in the Padres vs. Cubs betting preview:

Yu Darvish gets the ball in a must-win Game 3 against his former team. It’s been a year to forget for Darvish, who allowed 43 ER in 72 innings across 15 starts.

Darvish did not fare well overall this season, but he was especially bad on the road. He allowed 25 ER in 31 IP (7.26 ERA) across seven starts away from Petco Park as opposed to a 3.95 ERA at home.

The Padres went 3-4 in Darvish’s road starts, and they were lucky to do that. He allowed at least three runs in five away outings, and even the White Sox got two runs on six hits across 4.2 innings in his final road start of the season.

On the flip side, Jameson Taillon had a fantastic finish to the season despite dealing with a calf strain and groin issue. In his final six starts since August 19, he allowed just six runs across 34.1 innings for a sparkling 1.57 ERA. He did not allow more than two runs in any of those six starts, and he only did that once (in Atlanta).

Home-field advantage was huge for both of these teams this season as the Cubs went 50-31 at home while the Padres went 38-43 on the road. That’s going to make the difference on Thursday.

Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+135) at New York Yankees

The Red Sox bullpen did well to keep Boston in the game on Wednesday night after Bryan Bello was pulled in the third inning, but the Yankees managed a 4-3 win in a back-and-forth affair. New York is once again the home favorite in Game 3, but the odds are a little bit too long for the Yankees, giving us some value on the Red Sox.

It’s a pitching matchup between two youngsters in Connelly Early and Cam Schlittler. We saw how the Yankees struggle against left-handed pitching, and while Early is nowhere near the caliber of Garrett Crochet, he’s held his own through four major-league starts. 

The southpaw allowed five earned runs in 19.1 innings (2.33 ERA) in his four starts, all in September, and didn’t allow more than two ER in any outing. He should be able to give the Sox a strong four or five innings to start the game, and they have Aroldis Chapman for the final inning or two, so it’s just about figuring out how to get through the middle innings.

Schlittler pitched well for the Yankees, too, but his recent success came in two straight starts against the Orioles. I’m not sure if he’ll be able to go longer than five or six innings at the absolute most, and the Yankees have used their best bullpen arms for double-digit pitches in each of the first two games.

This should be a classic matchup between the Red Sox and Yankees, but the line is off. Take Boston at this +135 price.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.