Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Yankees-Royals, Nationals-Mets, Tigers-Orioles)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Thursday, June 12, including a pick for the Tigers-Orioles matchup.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal is a great player to back in the betting market on Thursday. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There are just eight games in MLB baseball on Thursday, including a bunch of afternoon starts to kick off the day.

So, why don’t bettors just get involved across the slate with games on both the East and West Coast starting prior to 4 p.m. EST? 

That’s my plan for Thursday’s action, as I’m starting by betting a total in the series finale between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals.

Then, later in the day, there is a golden opportunity to back reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal in a road start against the Baltimore Orioles.

Here’s a breakdown of both of those picks – and more – for Thursday, June 12. 

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 12

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Mets-Washington Nationals UNDER 8 (-103)
• Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-188) vs. Baltimore Orioles
• New York Yankees Moneyline (-150) vs. Kansas City Royals

New York Mets-Washington Nationals UNDER 8 (-103)

The Mets and Nationals kick off Thursday’s MLB action with what actually might be a pretty good pitching matchup – despite the odds.

Oddsmakers have set the Mets as -245 favorites with Kodai Senga (1.59 ERA) on the mound against Michael Soroka, but the advanced numbers tell us this isn’t as lopsided of a matchup as you’d expect.

Senga has an expected ERA in the 71st percentile this season (3.31) while Soroka is actually in the 81st percentile (2.99). While Soroka has led the Nationals to just three wins in seven starts, he’s coming off a six-inning, two-hit showing in his last outing.

Overall, Soroka has given up three or more runs in five of his seven outings, but the advanced numbers at Statcast tell us he’s missing a ton of barrels, ranking in the 94th percentile in barrel percentage. 

Meanwhile, Senga has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 12 outings in the 2025 season, leading the Mets to an 8-4 record. New York has combined for eight or fewer runs in 10 of his 12 appearances.

I think these starters keep this game relatively low-scoring to open Thursday’s slate. 

Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-188) vs. Baltimore Orioles

Whenever Tarik Skubal is on the mound, the Detroit Tigers are a team to consider betting on.

The reigning AL Cy Young winner has led Detroit to a 9-4 record in his 13 starts this season, posting a 2.16 ERA, 1.86 FIP and 2.36 expected ERA.

When you look at Skubal’s Statcast profile, it’s very easy to see why he’s one of the best pitchers in the game. 

Tarik Skubal has been dominant in 2025. / Statcast

Skubal has allowed just 12 hits and one earned run over his last three starts (23.2 innings of work), and he should make quick work of an Orioles lineup that is dead last in MLB in OPS against lefties and 29th in batting average.

The O’s will counter Skubal with Dean Kremer on the mound, but he enters this start with a 4.98 ERA. Baltimore is just 5-8 in his 13 outings in 2025. 

The Tigers are a no-brainer bet for me on Thursday. 

New York Yankees Moneyline (-150) vs. Kansas City Royals

The New York Yankees are looking to sweep the Kansas City Royals on Thursday, and their offense may just be good enough to get it done.

New York is second in batting average, first in OPS and third in runs scored this season, putting up 16 runs in the first two games of this series. Kansas City, on the other hand, is 28th in runs scored and 25th in OPS this season.

In this pitching matchup, I think offense is going to be the key.

New York has Will Warren (5.34 ERA, 3.78 expected ERA) on the mound in this one, and he’s been knocked around in his last few starts, allowing 11 runs in 6.2 innings of work. 

Meanwhile, Seth Lugo ranks in just the 13th percentile in expected ERA (5.22) and is in the 16th percentile or worse in whiff percentage, expected batting average against, average exit velocity against and hard-hit percentage. 

He should struggle against this New York lineup on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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