MLB Playoff Odds for Every Team in Wild Card Race (Yankees Skyrocket, Mets, Red Sox Slipping)

Breaking down the playoff odds for every MLB team in the race ahead of this week's action.

The New York Yankees have gone from -330 to -1100 to make the playoffs this season. / Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The MLB playoffs are quickly approaching, and there has been a lot of movement in the wild card standings — and the playoff odds — in the last week.

For the rest of the season, the SI Betting team is going to break down the playoff odds for every team to open each week, as there may be a team just outside the wild card mix that has some value in the betting market.

In the American League, a half game is all that separates the Boston Red Sox (the No. 1 wild card) from the New York Yankees (the No. 3 wild card) with the Seattle Mariners tied with Boston record wise. 

New York has rebounded from a rough stretch to win seven of 10 games and create a 3.5-game cushion over the chasing Cleveland Guardians.

Meanwhile, in the National League, the San Diego Padres remain just out of first place in the NL West, but they’re the No. 2 wild card behind the Chicago Cubs. 

The No. 1 record in the NL and in MLB belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who are 33 games over .500 entering Aug. 18’s action.

There are a few close division races, as San Diego and Seattle are both within two games of the top spot.

Plus, the NL East may have opened a bit for the New York Mets with Zack Wheeler (blood clot) landing on the IL for the Philadelphia Phillies.

With so much at stake over the final weeks, let’s take a look at the playoff odds for each team, and a few teams to consider betting on to make the final field.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

American League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

• Toronto Blue Jays: -20000
• Detroit Tigers: -20000
• Houston Astros: -1800

The Blue Jays and Tigers both have sizable leads in their division races, but the Astros are far from a guarantee to win the NL West.

Even with Yordan Alvarez potentially returning for the final stretch of the regular season, the Astros hold just a 1.5-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the division. 

Houston does have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule, per Tankathon, which should help it finish atop the NL West. Still, it’s worth noting that oddsmakers aren’t nearly as bullish on the Astros making the playoffs as they are Toronto or Detroit. 

Wild Card Race

• New York Yankees: -1100
• Seattle Mariners: -900
• Boston Red Sox: -350
• Cleveland Guardians: +425
• Kansas City Royals: +425
• Texas Rangers: +550
• Tampa Bay Rays: +1300
• Minnesota Twins: +4000
• Los Angeles Angels: +4000

All it took was a 7-3 stretch from the New York Yankees to completely flip this market.

New York is now just a half-game back of the top spot in the AL wild card, and it has gone from -330 to -1100 to make the playoffs this season. The Yanks have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule, so it’s not a surprise that oddsmakers are high on them in the AL.

Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox have fallen from -450 to -350 to make the playoffs, despite the fact that they hold the top wild card spot in the AL. Boston is just five games out of the AL East lead as well, but it has dropped six of its last 10 games.

As for the chasing pack, Texas, Kansas City and Cleveland are all in the mix – although the Guardians (3.5 games back) and Royals (four games back) are in the best position. Texas has fallen off by dropping eight of its last 10 games.

Of those chasing teams, only the Guardians (15.4 percent chance) have better than 15 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. 

National League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

• Philadelphia Phillies: -20000
• Los Angeles Dodgers: -20000
• Milwaukee Brewers: N/A

The three division leaders in the NL remain the same, although the Padres have made a push for the NL West crown with the Dodgers. 

After winning 14 games in a row before a loss on Sunday, the Brewers (33 games over .500) are viewed as a lock to make the playoffs and their odds have been taken off the board. 

One thing to watch here is the Phillies’ pitching staff with Wheeler on the injured list. While Philadelphia should be able to at least secure a wild card spot, the team’s five-game lead in the NL East is a little shakier today than it was before Wheeler went down. Still, I’d be surprised if the Phils blew this lead over the final weeks of the regular season. 

Wild Card Race

• Chicago Cubs: -3500
• San Diego Padres: -3500
• New York Mets: -370
• Cincinnati Reds: +280
• San Francisco Giants: +2500
• St. Louis Cardinals: +2500
• Arizona Diamondbacks: +3000
• Miami Marlins: +5000

Unlike the AL wild card race where there are multiple teams pushing for a playoff spot, only the Cincinnati Reds (+280) seem to have a real chance in the NL.

Cincy is just 1.5 games back of a Mets team that has struggled in recent weeks, but FanGraphs has given the Reds just a 14.5 percent chance to make the postseason. A big reason why? Cincy has the third hardest strength of schedule (.522 winning percentage) left this season, including 14 combined games against the Dodgers and Padres.

However, if the Reds are able to come out on top against one of those teams, it could give them another team to pass in the wild card race. For now, it seems like the betting market is higher on Cincy than FanGraphs and ESPN, who are both giving the Reds less than a 15 percent chance to make the final playoff field.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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