Montana vs. Montana State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for FCS Semifinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Montana vs. Montana State matchup in the FCS semifinals on Saturday.

Montana State Bobcats quarterback Justin Lamson. / Michael Thomas Shroyer-Imagn Images

A trip to the FCS Championship Game is on the line on Saturday afternoon, as two of the top teams in the tournament face off. 

No. 2 Montana State is coming off a 16-point win over Stephen F. Austin in the quarterfinals, and it’ll take on another Montana school – No. 3 Montana – in the semifinals. These teams have already played once this season, with the Bobcats knocking off the Grizzlies by three points. The loss was the only game Montana has dropped in 2025.

Montana State enters this game with two losses, but both against impressive programs. The Bobcats lost to Oregon in Week 1 and South Dakota State (the No. 14 seed in this tournament) in Week 2, but they have not dropped a game since.

Led by a lethal running back duo of Julius Davis and Adam Jones, the Bobcats are favored by 4.5 points on Saturday afternoon. Can they advance to the final with their second win over the Grizzlies?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a key player to watch and my prediction for this matchup in the FCS semis. 

Montana vs. Montana State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• Montana +4.5 (-110)
• Montana State -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Montana: +144
• Montana State: -178

Total

• 58.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Montana vs. Montana State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 20
• Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Bobcat Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Montana record: 13-1
• Montana State record: 12-2 

Montana vs. Montana State Key Player to Watch

Eli Gillman, Running Back, Montana

Gillman has been awesome in the 2025 season for the Grizzlies, rushing for 1,434 and 20 scores while averaging 6.1 yards per carry. He had a big game against Montana State earlier this season, rushing for 132 yards on 15 carries while also scoring a touchdown. 

Gillman added five catches for 14 yards in that game, and he’s been involved in the passing offense as well this season, catching 29 passes for 203 yards and two scores. 

While Montana quarterback Keali'i Ah Yat led the FCS in passing yards, Gillman may be used a little more since Montana State allows less than 200 passing yards per game and held the Grizzlies to just 186 passing yards in their previous meeting. 

Montana vs. Montana State Prediction and Pick

Montana State already has a win in this matchup under its belt, and it’s knocked off Yale and No. 7 Stephen F. Austin in back-to-back games by eight or more points in. In fact, Montana State has won 11 games by eight or more points this season.

The only one it didn’t? The win over the Grizzlies earlier this season.

So, Montana is one of the few teams that has been able to hang with the Bobcats, but I’m not sold on that being the case in this semifinal. 

Montana was torched for 241 yards on the ground in their earlier meeting between these teams, and it is lucky it didn’t turn the ball over several times. Outside of an interception by Ah Yat, the Grizzlies also fumbled twice but didn’t end up losing either.

Montana blew out South Dakota State and South Dakota to reach the semifinals, but they also only beat Eastern Washington late in the season by five points. The Bobcats? Well, they beat Eastern Washington 57-3. 

I lean with Montana State to win this game, and it has won by margin all season long. I’ll lay the points in this semifinal matchup. 

Pick: Montana State -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your FanDuel promo code offer today.