Montana vs. Wisconsin Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 20, 2025

Mar 16, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard John Tonje (9) drives to the hoop past Michigan Wolverines forward Will Tschetter (42) during the second half during the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Wisconsin couldn’t get over the hump in the Big Ten Championship Game last weekend, but now turn its attention to the NCAA Tournament where the team is the No. 3 seed in the East Region. 

The team will face Big Sky champion No. 14 seed Montana on Thursday afternoon to kick off the NCAA Tournament. The Badgers are paced by an elite offense around transfer forward John Tonje, but will certainly face an elite offense in the Grizzlies, who will look to pull the stunner in the opening round. 

However, we are eyeing a bet on the total, let’s break it down below!

Montana vs. Wisconsin Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Montana: +8.5 (-120)
• Wisconsin: -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Montana: +114
• Wisconsin: -137

Total: 145.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Montana vs. Wisconsin How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 20
• Game Time: 1:30 PM EST
• Venue: Ball Arena
• How to Watch (TV): truTV
• Montana Record: 25-9
• Wisconsin Record: 26-9

Montana vs. Wisconsin Key Players to Watch

Montana

Malik Moore: The Montana small forward will have his hands full defending Tonje, but also will be counted on to provide a ton of offense for the roster against Wisconsin’s drop-coverage on defense as Moore is the best 3-point shooter on the Grizzlies. The veteran forward is hitting 41% of his shots from deep on the year for the sweet shooting Big Sky champions. 

Wisconsin 

John Tonje: Tonje is in contention for first team All-American consideration, averaging over 19 points per game with five rebounds and nearly two assists as the hub of one of the best offenses in the country. Tonje is the team’s primary ball handler at 6’5” while providing three-level scoring in his senior season. 

Montana vs. Wisconsin Prediction and Pick

This game profiles as an over as Montana doesn’t have the defensive capability to keep Wisconsin from having an incredibly efficient offensive game. 

The Grizzlies have played three teams in the nCAA Tournament field – Oregon, Tennessee and Utah State – allowing at least 79 points to all three and over 90 to two of them. In those games, each team shot at least 36% from beyond the arc and posted elite points per possession metrics, so I expect Wisconsin to look the part on offense. 

Why I like the over, though, is based around Montana’s ability to score. The team is 13th in the country in effective field goal percentage and is more than capable of creating its own shot, which is where Wisconsin has been vulnerable at times this season. 

Overall, look for Montana to lose the shot volume battle in a big way, but utilize its self creation to generate quality 3-point chances to make the scoreline look respectable.

The Badgers should put up a big number on the scoreboard, but with a total this high, I’m comfortable Montana doing its part to send it over. 

PICK: OVER 149.5 (-115, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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