Nationals vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, June 12

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Washington Nationals-New York Mets matchup on June 12.

New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga is a solid prop target on June 12. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The New York Mets have won five games in a row and are looking to pull off a sweep of the Washington Nationals on Thursday afternoon at Citi Field.

New York is heavily favored in this series finale, as Kodai Senga (1.59 ERA) gets the ball against Michael Soroka (4.86 ERA). However, interestingly enough, Soroka has a better expected ERA – per Statcast – than Senga this season.

Washington is in third place in the NL East, but it has dropped four games in a row. Can it stop the bleeding on the road on Thursday?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for this series finale in New York.  

Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Nationals +1.5 (-105)
• Mets -1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Nationals: +186
• Mets: -231

Total

• 8 (Over -119/Under -103)

Nationals vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• Washington: Michael Soroka (3-3, 4.86 ERA)
• New York: Kodai Senga (6-3 1.59 ERA)

Nationals vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 12
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, MASN
• Nationals record: 30-37
• Mets record: 44-24

Nationals vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Kodai Senga UNDER 2.5 Walks Allowed (-190)

So far this season, Senga has struggled a bit with free passes, walking 30 batters across 12 starts. However, he only has four starts where he’s cleared this line.

On Thursday, Senga is facing a Washington team that is just 26th in MLB in walks drawn this season, and he walked just two batters across six frames in an April matchup with the Nats.

This line is a little too high, given the matchup. I’ll take the UNDER for the Mets ace in this series finale. 

Nationals vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Is this pitching matchup better than it seems?

In today’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – at SI Betting, I shared why the UNDER is worth a look on Thursday afternoon:

The Mets and Nationals kick off Thursday’s MLB action with what actually might be a pretty good pitching matchup – despite the odds.

Oddsmakers have set the Mets as -231 favorites with Kodai Senga (1.59 ERA) on the mound against Michael Soroka, but the advanced numbers tell us this isn’t as lopsided of a matchup as you’d expect.

Senga has an expected ERA in the 71st percentile this season (3.31) while Soroka is actually in the 81st percentile (2.99). While Soroka has led the Nationals to just three wins in seven starts, he’s coming off a six-inning, two-hit showing in his last outing.

Overall, Soroka has given up three or more runs in five of his seven outings, but the advanced numbers at Statcast tell us he’s missing a ton of barrels, ranking in the 94th percentile in barrel percentage. 

Meanwhile, Senga has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 12 outings in the 2025 season, leading the Mets to an 8-4 record. New York has combined for eight or fewer runs in 10 of his 12 appearances.

I think these starters keep this game relatively low-scoring to open Thursday’s slate. 

Pick: UNDER 8 (-103 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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