Nationals vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, June 23

Sean Treppedi | Jun 23, 2025

James Wood's power hitting promise gives his +390 home run odds some edge against the Padres on Monday. / Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres open their series Monday night at Petco Park. Washington has shown flashes of power recently, but consistency has been elusive and they remain tied for last in the NL East. They’ve dropped seven of their last ten, though a competitive showing in Los Angeles may provide a spark. 

San Diego, meanwhile, just snapped a four-game slide by winning their weekend set against Kansas City, but the Padres have still won only four of their last eleven.

Washington turns to lefty Mitchell Parker (4-8, 4.59 ERA), who’s coming off a strong outing in a tough-luck loss against Colorado. The Padres counter with Stephen Kolek (3-2, 3.59 ERA), a right-hander who's quietly stabilized the back of their rotation despite shaky command at times.

Here’s how I’m approaching the board with this one.

Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Nationals +1.5 (-140)
• Padres -1.5 (+116)

Moneyline

• Nationals (+144)
• Padres (-172)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-112)
• Under 8.5 (-108)

Nationals vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Nationals: Mitchell Parker (4-8, 4.59 ERA)
• Padres: Stephen Kolek (3-2, 3.59 ERA)

Nationals vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Monday, June 23, 2025
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): Padres TV Network, MASN 2
• Nationals Record: 32-46
• Padres Record: 42-35

Royals vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• James Wood Home Run (+390 at FanDuel)

Wood’s 21 home runs ties him for sixth overall in baseball. At 22, his 2025 coming out party has made for a dangerous .924 .OPS. Wood is a base-collecting machine, ranking third in total bases in the National League while routinely producing exit velocities in Statcast’s top-98 percentile.

Not only does Kolek struggle gravely against lefties, but Wood is smashing a 32% HR/FB ratio. I can keep listing elite barreled ball numbers, but it’s safe to say Wood heads into Monday with plenty of wind in his sails to offer longshot value for a longball. 

Nationals vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Washington brings an edge as road dogs here considering how shaky San Diego’s bullpen has been as of late. The Nats may have dropped their most recent series to the Dodgers, but they posted five home runs in Sunday’s 13-7 defeat.

Kolek’s .293 clip to lefties paves the way for a  strong left-handed hitting lineup in Wood, Ruiz, Abrams and Garcia Jr. — all of which have hit successfully against right-handed pitching. Parker is trending into longer outings, cleaner innings and lower walk rates.

He’s hot off having allowed one run over 6⅓ innings with eight strikeouts in his last start against the lowly Rockies. Petco is a pitcher-friendly park and San Diego’s offense has been nothing better than average at home this month. 

Pick: Nationals (+144 at FanDuel)

---

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.