Nationals vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, April 14

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Washington Nationals-Pittsburgh Pirates matchup on Monday night.

Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes is a solid prop target on Monday. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

All eyes in Pittsburgh will turn to the pitcher’s mound on Monday, as superstar Paul Skenes will make his fourth start of the season for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Skenes is taking on the Washington Nationals, who dropped back-to-back games over the weekend but are still in fourth in the NL East.

Meanwhile, the Pirates are just 5-11 so far in the 2025 campaign and have the second-worst run differential in the National League. Can they turn things around with Skenes on the bump? 

Let’s break down the odds, probable pitchers, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Monday’s contest. 

Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nationals +1.5 (-118)
• Pirates -1.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Nationals: +180
• Pirates: -218

Total

• 7 (Over -118/Under -102)

Nationals vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Washington: Brad Lord (0-0, 1.80 ERA)
• Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (1-1, 3.44 ERA)

Nationals vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Monday, April 14
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet PT, MASN
• Nationals record: 6-9
• Pirates record: 5-11

Nationals vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Paul Skenes UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-160) 

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m fading Skenes in this game:

This season, Paul Skenes has made three starts, striking out seven, six and seven batters in those outings.

However, he’s set at 7.5 K’s against the Washington Nationals on Monday, who have actually done a great job at avoiding K’s in the 2025 season. Washington is averaging just 8.53 strikeouts per game – 15th in MLB – meaning Skenes would have to nearly reach the team’s season average just to clear this prop.

Skenes has thrown over 90 pitches in each of his outings, getting through 5.1, 7.0 and 6.0 innings in those starts. While he’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball, this number is a little high, as evidenced by the odds for him to go UNDER. 

Skenes is also in just the 69th percentile in chase percentage and the 63rd percentile in whiff percentage this season. With those numbers a little lower than some of his other amazing stats, I’ll fade him in this market on Monday. 

Nationals vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

The Pirates are one of the worst offenses in MLB, sitting at 27th in runs scored and dead last in OPS, which makes them a great team to bet on the UNDER on.

In fact, the UNDER is 8-7-1 so far in the 2025 season for the Pirates. 

With Skenes on the mound, this could end up being a low-scoring game on both sides, even though Washington is 12th in the league in runs scored. Skenes has allowed just 12 hits and seven earned runs in over 18 innings of work, and all three of his starts have finished with nine or fewer combined runs between the teams.

If this Pittsburgh offense continues to struggle, I think this total may be a little high with Skenes on the mound. The star righty should be able to keep the Pirates in striking distance against a young Washington team.  

Pick: UNDER 7 (-102 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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