Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Alperen Sengun, Grizzlies-Clippers)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Dec. 15.

Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun is a solid prop target on Monday. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Ahead of Tuesday night’s NBA Cup Championship, the NBA has a five-game slate on Monday night with some contenders facing off against each other.

In the Eastern Conference, the No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons have their third meeting of the season with the No. 3-seeded Boston Celtics while the Western Conference features a major clash between the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets.

I’m eyeing a player prop in the Nuggets-Rockets matchup as one of my favorite picks for tonight’s slate.

With only five games in action, I’m going to make just three picks tonight, with two coming in the late-night battle between the Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies. Oddsmakers have set the Grizzlies as road dogs in this matchup, but they may be worth a look with James Harden listed as questionable for L.A. 

Here’s a complete breakdown of each of the best bets for Dec. 15 in the NBA. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 91-75 (+1.33 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1382-1312-27 (+34.48 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Alperen Sengun 8+ Rebounds (-152)
• John Collins UNDER 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)
• Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 (-112) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Alperen Sengun 8+ Rebounds (-152)

Alperen Sengun is averaging 9.4 rebounds per game this season for a Houston team that ranks No. 1 in the NBA in rebounding percentage.

Now, the Rockets take on a Denver team that is No. 3 in the league in rebounding percentage, making this a tough matchup for him to hit his season average. However, this line is low enough where I think Sengun is worth targeting on Monday.

The Rockets star has at least eight boards in 14 of his 20 games, including every game that he’s played in during the month of December. 

Overall, he’s averaging 16.6 rebound chances per game, and I’m not going to put too much stock into him finishing with five rebounds in the first meeting between these teams. Sengun should be in play to reach eight or more boards on Monday. 

John Collins UNDER 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)

This season, Los Angeles Clippers forward John Collins is averaging 12.1 points and 4.6 rebounds per game while shooting 49.6 percent from the field and just 29.7 percent from 3. The veteran big man has not lived up to the expectations the Clippers had when they moved Norman Powell in a three-team trade to bring Collins in.

Collins has started the last 16 games for the Clippers, but it hasn't dramatically improved his production. He's putting up 11.4 points and 4.5 rebounds per game during that stretch, and he's failed to clear 17.5 rebounds and assists in 10 of those games.

Overall, he has 18 or more rebounds and assists in just 10 of his 25 appearances in the 2025-26 season.

Memphis ranks seventh in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season, so this is far from an easy matchup for Collins to get back on track on the glass. He's also only taking 9.4 shots per game -- his lowest since his rookie season -- which really lowers his ceiling as a scorer.

In two meetings with Memphis this season, Collins had 17 and 18 points and rebounds, but he scored 16 points in the second meeting to push himself over this line. I don't see that happening again on Monday night.

Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 (-112) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are just 6-19 in the 2025-26 season, yet they find themselves as two-possession favorites on Monday night.

I am not buying it, especially with James Harden (calf) on the injury report as questionable for this game. L.A. has relied heavily on Harden this season, and it ranks 23rd in net rating, 26th in defensive rating and 19th in offensive rating even though he’s appeared in 24 of the Clippers’ 25 games this season. 

Memphis, on the other hand, has won seven of its last 10 games, moving up to 18th in the league in net rating after a slow start. While the Grizzlies have not been as good with Zach Edey out of the lineup (he has a stress reaction in his ankle), they did get Ja Morant back in the lineup in their last game.

The Grizzlies are an NBA-worst 4-11 against the spread as an underdog this season, but the Clippers are just 2-10 against the number when favored.

L.A. has just six wins all season, and I don’t think this veteran team deserves to be favored against anyone at the moment. The Grizzlies are also starting to play much better, posting a net rating of +7.1 in their last 10 games – the No. 6 mark in the league during that stretch.

I’ll take the points here with the Clippers still getting a lot of respect in the betting market despite a terrible start to the season.

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