Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for De’Aaron Fox, Trey Murphy III)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Dec. 8.

San Antonio Spurs guard De'Aaron Fox is a great prop target on Monday. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

A huge week is ahead in the NBA with the NBA Cup Quarterfinals kicking off on Tuesday and the semifinals set for Saturday, but first three is a three-game slate on Monday to dive into: 

• Sacramento Kings vs. Indiana Pacers
• Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
• San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Pelicans

This isn’t the most intriguing NBA action of the season – especially with Devin Booker, Victor Wembanyama and Zion Williamson all out – but there are still a pair of player props that I’m eyeing.

Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox has been on fire this season with Wemby out of the lineup, and he may be undervalued against a New Orleans team that has just three wins in the 2025-26 campaign and has slipped to 28th in the league in defensive rating.

Fox highlights tonight’s picks, but there is also a young wing that I think is worth a look in the Spurs-Pelicans clash.

Here’s a full breakdown of each of my best bets for Monday, Dec. 8. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 77-64 (+0.12 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1368-1301-27 (+33.27 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• De’Aaron Fox OVER 23.5 Points (-126)
• Trey Murphy III OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-105)

De’Aaron Fox OVER 23.5 Points (-126)

Since Wemby went down, Fox has really turned a corner as a scorer, averaging 26.8 points per game while shooting 48.9 percent from the field and 39.4 percent from beyond the arc.

The star guard is attempting 18.4 shots per game over that stretch, giving him a solid floor heading into a matchup with one of the worst defenses in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 28th in the league in both defensive rating and opponent points per game.

Fox has scored 25 or more points in nine of his 10 games with Wemby out of the lineup, and he scored 24 points on 14 shots against this New Orleans team in his 2025-26 season debut. 

The star guard should remain in a lead role until Wembanyama returns, and he feels undervalued with his prop set under 24 points on Monday night. 

Trey Murphy III OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-105)

Trey Murphy III has been one of the bright spots for this New Orleans team, averaging 20.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists across 22 games while shooting 46.8 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from 3.

I think he's a little undervalued in his assists and rebounds prop in this game, as he's picked up 10, 15 and 19 in his last three games. Overall, Murphy has 10 or more rebounds and assists in 14 games, including five of his last six.

In his two previous meetings with the Spurs this season, Murphy has put up 15 and 12 rebounds and assists, grabbing 9.5 boards per game in those matchups. So, he has a pretty discernible floor when it comes to this market.

Since the Pelicans are down some of their top initiators on offense, I think Murphy is a great bet as the true No. 1 option for the Pelicans on Monday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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