Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Donovan Mitchell, Grizzlies-Timberwolves, Cavs)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Wednesday, Dec. 17.

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell is as great prop target on Wednesday. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The 2025 NBA Cup is behind us, as the New York Knicks defeated the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night to become the third NBA Cup champion in league history.

Now, the focus shifts back to the regular season as teams gear up for Christmas Day as we near the one-third mark of the 2025-26 season. 

Two of the teams playing on Christmas this season – the Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves – are both in action on Wednesday night in a two-game NBA slate:

• Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Chicago Bulls
• Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have been without superstar guard Anthony Edwards recently, but he’s listed as questionable for Wednesday night’s matchup with Memphis.

Meanwhile, the Cavs are down Evan Mobley, but oddsmakers have still set them as road favorites against a struggling Bulls team.

I’m eyeing a couple plays for Wednesday’s action, so why don’t we dive into the latest odds and my breakdowns for each bet! 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 98-76 (+5.92 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1389-1313-27 (+39.08 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Donovan Mitchell OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)
• Cleveland Cavaliers-Memphis Grizzlies 5-Point Teaser (-130)

Donovan Mitchell OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)

With Evan Mobley (calf) sidelined, Donovan Mitchell is going to have to score even more for Cleveland in the coming weeks.

The star guard is averaging 30.7 points per game this season while shooting 49.4 percent from the field and 38.1 percent from beyond the arc.

I’m eyeing Mitchell’s 3-point prop in this game, as he’s taking 10.6 shots from deep per game, leading the league with 4.0 made 3s per contest. Mitchell has 14 games this season with four or more 3-pointers, including a 5-for-12 showing in his lone game against the Bulls.

Chicago ranks 19th in the NBA in opponent 3s made per game and 20th in opponent 3-point percentage this season. I think Mitchell is in line for a big game on Wednesday, especially since he’s taking 11.3 3-pointers per game in the month of December. 

Cleveland Cavaliers-Memphis Grizzlies 5-Point Teaser (-130)

• Memphis Grizzlies +13.5
• Cleveland Cavaliers -0.5 

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have not been great as underdogs this season against the spread (5-11), but they did cover and win outright on Monday against the Los Angeles Clippers. 

I’m buying Memphis at this price on Wednesday, especially with Anthony Edwards (foot) up in the air for the game. The Grizzlies are playing much better over their last 10 games, ranking seventh in the NBA in net rating (+4.7) while winning seven of those matchups.

Minnesota is 9-4 at home this season, but it is just 5-8 against the spread in those games. The Timberwolves are a more talented team than Memphis – especially if Edwards plays – but I’m not sold on them winning this game by a wide margin. The Wolves have an average scoring margin in their home games of +7.6, and they’ve played 12 clutch games – within five points in the final five minutes – this season. 

I wouldn’t be shocked if Memphis, which has played 15 clutch games, is able to hang around in this matchup. 

Cleveland Cavaliers

Essentially this is a bet on the Cavs to win with the teaser, and I think they’re the better team – even without Mobley – in this matchup.

Cleveland has struggled against the spread overall this season (8-19), but the Bulls aren’t much better, going 11-14 in 25 games.

Chicago has fallen off a cliff in several advanced numbers after a strong start to the season, making it very hard to trust it against a Cavs team that has title aspirations. The Bulls have dropped to: 

• 24th in net rating (-5.3)
• 25th in offensive rating (112.1)
• 24th in defensive rating (117.4)

To make matters worse, they have a net rating of -9.7 over their last 10 games, which is the second-worst mark in the NBA during that stretch.

As bad as the Cavs have been to open this season (based on their expectations), they still have a top-10 net rating (+2.7) in the league. 

I’m buying Cleveland to win this game on the road as the Bulls’ season falls further and further into the tank. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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