Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Knicks-Celtics, Jalen Brunson)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA playoff action on Wednesday, May 14.

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is a great prop target in Game 5. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

Could two conference semifinal matchups come to a close on Wednesday night?

Both the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves have 3-1 series leads entering their respective Game 5 matchups, and their opponents are dealing with some major injuries.

Steph Curry (hamstring) has not played since early in Game 1 for the Golden State Warriors in this series against Minnesota, and he’s listed as out for Game 5 on Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum went down with a ruptured Achilles in Game 4, and he’s been ruled for the season and likely will miss a good chunk -- if not all -- of next season. Boston is still favored in the matchup with the Knicks, but it’s hard to see the C’s erasing a 3-1 deficit without their superstar forward.

I’m eyeing a pair of picks for Wednesday’s action, including a player prop for Knicks star Jalen Brunson that continues to be undervalued. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 258-247-4 (-3.13 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1268-1191-26 (+34.97 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit
• New York Knicks-Boston Celtics UNDER 207.5 (-110) – 0.5 unit

Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit

In 10 playoff games this season, Jalen Brunson has 80 total assists, picking up seven or more dimes in nine of his 10 games.

Yet, oddsmakers continue to set the Knicks star at just 6.5 assists in the prop market against the Boston Celtics.

Brunson has cleared this line in three of the four games in this series, dropping 12 assists in a huge Game 4 win on Monday night. He’s averaging 8.0 assists per game in the playoffs, a step forward from the 7.5 assists per game he averaged last postseason.

Oh, and Brunson set a career high in assists per game (7.3) during the regular season in the 2024-25 campaign. So, he’s been pretty consistent when it comes to hitting seven or more dimes.

Lastly, in the playoffs, Brunson is averaging 12.9 potential assists per contest. For a player that has the ball in his hands as much as the Knicks point guard, this bet is a no-brainer in Game 5. 

New York Knicks-Boston Celtics UNDER 207.5 (-110) – 0.5 unit

I’m only making two bets for Wednesday’s action, as the Golden State series has been tougher to predict with Curry out of the lineup.

In the Knicks-Celtics Game 5, I toyed with the idea of backing New York to cover, but I actually think the best course of action in this game is to take the UNDER with Tatum out.

Boston’s offense should be significantly hindered without the All-NBA forward running the show, and the C’s and Knicks are two of the best defensive teams in the playoffs, ranking No. 2 (Boston) and No. 5 (New York) in defensive rating.

Prior to Game 4, the Knicks had an offensive rating of 101.4 in this series, which would have been the second-worst of any team in the playoffs. While New York bounced back in Game 4, things should get a little tougher in Game 5 in Boston.

Game 1 of this series cleared this total, but these teams went to overtime to make that happen. Then, Game 2 fell short of this number and Game 3 barely cleared it with 208 combined points.

Without Boston’s offensive engine on the floor, I could see this turning into a defensive slog – especially if the C’s want to stay in the game.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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