Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, SGA)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Thursday, Dec. 18.

Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic is a solid prop target on Thursday. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

It’s been a long time since we had an expansive slate of NBA games since the last week plus has been dedicated to the NBA Cup schedule, but Thursday’s action changes all of that.

There are 12 games set for Dec. 18, including some great matchups in the latter half of the slate, as the Denver Nuggets host the Orlando Magic and Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors hit the road to play the Phoenix Suns.

Plus, the NBA Cup champion New York Knicks are on the road against the Indiana Pacers in a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals.

This week started strong with back-to-back sweeps on Monday and Tuesday, and I’d love to add to a strong start to the year with so many games to consider on Dec. 18.

So, without further ado, here’s a breakdown of my favorite props, sides and the latest odds for these bets on Thursday night. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 99-77 (+5.66 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1390-1314-27 (+38.82 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Kon Knueppel 18+ Points (-138)
• Luka Doncic 35+ Points (-149)
• Utah Jazz +7.5 (-108) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-145)
• Nikola Jokic OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-129)

Kon Knueppel 18+ Points (-138)

Rookie guard Kon Knueppel has been awesome for the Charlotte Hornets this season, as he's averaging 19.0 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game while shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 40.5 percent from beyond the arc.

LaMelo Ball (questionable) is up in the air on Thursday, and Knueppel has thrived when the star guard is out of the lineup. This season, he's averaging 22.1 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists in 10 games with Ball sidelined, and he could be in line for a major workload on Thursday.

Knueppel also had 28 points on 9-of-17 shooting in his last matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, and he's scored 18 or more points in 16 of his 26 games overall this season.

Luka Doncic 35+ Points (-149)

The Los Angeles Lakers are down Austin Reaves, Deandre Ayton and potentially Gabe Vincent (questionable) on Thursday night, which puts Luka Doncic in a great spot to lead the team in scoring.

This season, Doncic is averaging 34.7 points per game while shooting 46.0 percent from the field and 32.4 percent from 3. With Reaves out, there is going to be a lot more shot volume to go around in the Lakers' offense, and Doncic should benefit.

He already leads the NBA in usage rate, shots per game (23.1) and 3-pointers attempted per game (10.7). Doncic also torched the Utah Jazz for 37 and 33 points in two meetings earlier this season. The MVP candidate has scored 35 or more points in 11 of his 19 games overall.

The Jazz rank 29th in the NBA in both defensive rating and opponent points per game, so I wouldn't be shocked to see Doncic have a huge game, especially if the Lakers aren't able to pull away early. L.A. is 16-9 against the spread this season, but it did let the Jazz hang around in both of their meetings back in November.

Utah Jazz +7.5 (-108) vs. Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers are 2-0 against the Utah Jazz this season, but they only beat them by two points in Utah in their last meeting.

L.A. is down both Austin Reaves and Deandre Ayton on Thursday night, yet oddsmakers still have it favored by 7.5 points on the road. The Lakers are 11-3 straight up on the road and 10-4 against the spread, but they failed to cover the last time these teams met.

Now, Utah isn’t nearly as good as the Lakers, in fact it’s not even close, but this team has been much tougher at home. The Jazz are 7-7 straight up at home, going 10-4 against the spread. They’ve also covered in eight of 12 games as home underdogs this season. 

The Jazz have a decent offense (19th in offensive rating), and that may help them hang around against a Lakers team that is 20th in defensive rating and down a pair of starters on Thursday night.

L.A. will probably win this game, but with this spread set at more than two possessions, I think the Jazz are the right side to cover. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-145)

The MVP favorite this season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a three-game streak of hitting multiple 3-pointers snapped on Saturday in a loss to the San Antonio Spurs, going 1-for-7 from beyond the arc.

Still, he’s shooting 43.7 percent from 3 overall, and the Thunder star has made at least two shots from beyond the arc in 17 of his 25 games this season.

He has a great matchup on Thursday night against a Los Angeles Clippers team that ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage (39.0 percent) and 27th in opponent 3s made per game.

Earlier this season, SGA was 4-for-5 from beyond the arc against his former team, and I expect him to have another strong showing on Thursday. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-129)

Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic is averaging 12.4 rebounds per game this season, but his rebounds prop is set below his season average on Thursday against the Orlando Magic.

Orlando is sixth in the NBA in rebounding percentage, so this is a tougher matchup than usual for Jokic. But, he had 15 boards against the No. 1 rebounding team in the league (the Houston Rockets) in his last game. On top of that, Jokic has helped Denver rank fourth in the league in rebounding percentage this season. 

The three-time league MVP is averaging over 20 rebound chances per game, picking up at least 12 boards in 15 of his 25 appearances this season.

Orlando is not a great shooting team (20th in effective field goal percentage), so I think there will be plenty of boards to go around for Jokic on Thursday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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