Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Clippers-Rockets, Bobby Portis)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Thursday, Dec. 11.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a solid prop target on Thursday. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

After back-to-back days of NBA Cup Quarterfinal action, the NBA returns to some typical regular-season games with a four-game slate on Dec. 11.

The action begins with three games at 8 p.m. EST, including the Houston Rockets hosting the Los Angeles Clippers, the Boston Celtics facing the Milwaukee Bucks and the Portland Trail Blazers on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans. Then, the Denver Nuggets head to California to take on the Sacramento Kings at 10 p.m. EST. 

This is a relatively small slate, but there are some interesting betting angles to consider, especially with two of the top teams in the West (Houston and Denver) in action. 

I’m eyeing a spread pick in the Clippers-Rockets matchup, as well as a player prop for Nikola Jokic against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. 

Plus, there is a role player that should step into an expanded role on Thursday with a former league MVP out of the lineup. 

Let’s break down each one of these plays for Thursday night’s NBA action. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 85-70 (+0.87 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1376-1307-27 (+34.03 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Bobby Portis OVER 12.5 Points (-111)
• Nikola Jokic OVER 29.5 Points (-110)
• Houston Rockets -9.5 (-108) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Bobby Portis OVER 12.5 Points (-111)

With Giannis Antetokounmpo out of the lineup this season for the Milwaukee Bucks, Bobby Portis has really taken a step forward as a scorer, averaging 15.4 points per game while shooting 51.0 percent from the field and 53.3 percent from 3. 

In eight games with the two-time MVP out, Portis is taking 12.8 shots per game, giving him a terrific floor in this market.

He's scored 14 or more points in five of those eight matchups, including 22-point games against Portland and Philadelphia.

The veteran forward is a proven scorer, averaging 11.4 points per game while shooting 46.7 percent from the field and 44.7 percent from 3. He should take on a bigger role against Boston on Thursday.

Nikola Jokic OVER 29.5 Points (-110)

Nikola Jokic has torched the Kings in his three meetings so far this season: 

• Nov. 3: 34 points (14-of-22 FG, 4-for-10 3P)
• Nov. 11: 35 points (16-of-19 FG, 1-for-2 3P)
• Nov. 22: 44 points (16-of-28 FG, 3-for-6 3P)

The Kings have not had an answer for Jokic, and now they’re down Domantas Sabonis on Thursday night. This season, the three-time league MVP is averaging 29.2 points per game while shooting 61.2 percent from the field and 41.4 percent from beyond the arc.

Jokic has made 66.7 percent of his field goal attempts against the Kings this season, who rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating and 26th in opponent points per game. If Denver doesn’t run away with this game too early, Jokic should handle a huge offensive load on Thursday night. 

Houston Rockets -9.5 (-108) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

The Rockets have the second-best against the spread record in the NBA this season (14-7), but they are just 5-4 against the spread as a home favorite.

Still, Houston is worth a look in this game, as it’s posted an average scoring margin of +13.9 points in those home games, going 7-2 straight up.

The Clippers, on the other hand, have the second-worst ATS record in the league (7-17), and they’ve won just six of their first 24 games while going 2-8 in their last 10.

On the road, the Clippers have posted a net rating of -7.7, which ranks 25th in the NBA. Los Angeles has struggled mightily on defense (25th in defensive rating), and it ranks 20th in the league in rebounding percentage.

That’s a major concern against a Houston team that dominates on the offensive glass, posting a 40.8 percent offensive rebounding rate. 

I think the Rockets run away with this game at home.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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