Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Oct. 27.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a great prop target on Monday. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

An 11-game slate in the NBA kicks off the first full week of games, and there are a ton of teams either playing a back-to-back or preparing for the front end of a back-to-back.

That can leave some injury reports up in the air, with stars like Luka Doncic (out), Anthony Edwards (left Sunday’s game early) headlining the list. 

Still, there are some great matchups to watch (and bet on) on Monday, including: 

• Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons
• Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
• Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
• Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

I have a few plays that I’m looking to make as the season reaches one week long. It’s been a bit of a rough start to the season, but the more games that are played, the more information we’ll have to bet on these teams.

Here’s where I’m leaning for Monday’s action. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 6-10 (-4.47 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1297-1247-27 (+28.67 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 Points (-104)
• Herb Jones OVER 4.5 Rebounds (+109)
• Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points + Cam Johnson 1+ 3-Pointers (-148)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 Points (-104)

It’s been a great start to the season for reigning league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as he’s averaging 40.0 points per game through three games while shooting 52.7 percent from the field. SGA hasn’t even shot the 3-ball well (22.7 percent from deep), but he’s put together huge scoring performances to lead OKC to an undefeated start.

On Monday, SGA takes on a Dallas team that has given up 125, 117 and 129 points in three games, ranking 19th in the NBA in defensive rating and 21st in opponent points per game.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage has been massive – he’s taken 17 or more shots in every game – and he gets to the line a ton (44 free-throw attempts in three games). 

With Chet Holmgren questionable and Jalen Williams out on Monday night, a ton of the scoring burden for OKC is going to fall on Gilgeous-Alexander.

He’s more than capable of handling it, and he won the scoring title averaging 32.7 points per game last season. He’s an easy bet at this number on Monday. 

Herb Jones OVER 4.5 Rebounds (+109)

New Orleans Pelicans wing Herb Jones is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game to open the 2025-26 season, and he has a great matchup against the Boston Celtics, who rank 29th in the NBA in rebounding percentage, on Monday.

Boston has been destroyed on the glass in back-to-back games by New York and Detroit, and I think New Orleans will take advantage in this matchup with the C’s facing the second night of a back-to-back on Monday.

Jones picked up nine boards against Memphis and seven against San Antonio, averaging 11.0 rebound chances per game in the process. He’s a great bet at plus money to grab five or more boards against a Boston team that is allowing 49.3 opponent rebounds per game – the fifth-most in the NBA. 

Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points + Cam Johnson 1+ 3-Pointers (-148)

Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points

Tyrese Maxey’s points prop is set at 28.5 for the Philadelphia 76ers in their matchup with the Orlando Magic, but I’m moving this line down just a bit to 25+ in this parlay.

Maxey has 40 and 28 points in his two games this season, and the 76ers are set to be without Joel Embiid and Paul George on Monday, leaving a ton of shots for the All-Star guard. Maxey has taken at least 20 shots in both of his games this season, and he’s gotten to the free-throw line for 20 attempts in the process.

Not only that, but he averaged 27.4 points, 5.9 assists and 3.1 rebounds in 36 games without Embiid last season. With a massive sample size of high-scoring games without Embiid, Maxey is a good bet to lead the Philly offense on Monday. 

Cam Johnson 1+ 3-Pointers Made

Denver Nuggets wing Cameron Johnson is getting adjusted to his new team, averaging 10.0 points per game while shooting 35.3 percent from the field and 22.2 percent from beyond the arc in two games.

Still, I love him to hit at least one shot from deep, as he’s done so in each of his first two games, taking nine of his 17 field goal attempts from beyond the arc.

Johnson is a career 39.1 percent shooter from deep, and he should see plenty of volume (six attempts from 3 in one game, three in the other) from beyond the arc as the season goes on. 

He may also be worth a look to hit two or more shots from deep at -130.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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