Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Spurs-Knicks, Stephon Castle, Jalen Brunson)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA Cup Championship between the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks.

San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle is a great prop target on Tuesday. / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

The NBA world is on hold on Tuesday night, as the third NBA Cup champion in league history will be crowned in Las Vegas.

The New York Knicks and Jalen Brunson enter Tuesday’s Championship Game as favorites against the San Antonio Spurs, who knocked off the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday in the semifinals.

San Antonio handed the Thunder just their second loss of the 2025-26 season, and Victor Wembanyama (22 points, nine rebounds, two assists, one steal, two blocks) was terrific in less than 21 minutes of action in his return from a calf strain. 

Meanwhile, Jalen Brunson dropped 40 points against the Orlando Magic to lead the Knicks to the final. The Knicks are now on a five-game winnings streak and may be the best team in the Eastern Conference after all – even though they started the season terribly on the road. 

I’m eyeing a bunch of props for this NBA Cup Final, and I made a three-player points parlay (at plus money) to go along with an assist prop for Stephon Castle as my two best bets of the night. 

Let’s enjoy a standalone NBA game with some serious stakes in December! 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 94-75 (+3.75 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1385-1312-27 (+36.90 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Points Prop Parlay (+111)
• Stephon Castle 5+ Assists (-170)

Points Prop Parlay (+111)

• Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
• Victor Wembanyama 18+ Points
• Stephon Castle 12+ Points

Jalen Brunson 25+ Points

Brunson torched Orlando on Saturday night in the NBA Cup semis, scoring 40 points on 16-of-27 shooting, his fourth game in a row with 30 or more points. 

The All-NBA guard is now averaging 28.8 points per game this season while shooting 48.7 percent from the field and 37.6 percent from beyond the arc.

This is a great matchup for Brunson, as the Spurs rank 27th in the NBA in points per game allowed to opposing point guards (27.93). Against OKC in the semis, the Spurs allowed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 29 points even though the Thunder scored just 109 points in total.

Brunson has been on fire since missing a few games with an ankle injury, scoring 30 or more points in seven of his last 12 games while shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from 3. He’s averaging 29.6 points per game during that 12-game stretch. 

For the sake of this parlay, we only need Brunson to score 25 or more points. I think he’s a great bet to do that, as he’s put up 25 or more in 17 of his 23 games this season, including all but two games since he returned from an ankle injury. 

Victor Wembanyama 18+ Points

I just had to bet on Wemby in this matchup, and he’s scored 18 or more points in 12 of his 13 games this season, so why not?

In less than 21 minutes on Saturday, Wembanyama was 6-for-11 from the field, 1-for-1 from 3 and 9-of-12 from the line, scoring 22 points to beat the Thunder. He should play a couple more minutes in this game as the Spurs work him back from a calf strain.

Either way, Wembanyama is going to get a ton of looks, even if he’s used as a super sub once again on Tuesday. Last season, the Spurs star torched the Knicks for 42 points on Christmas, and he won’t shine away from the moment in this championship game. 

Overall, Wembanyama is averaging 25.8 points per game while shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from 3 this season. 

Stephon Castle 12+ Points

Castle’s leg in this parlay is pretty simple, as he only has one game this season where he failed to reach 12 points, and it was the matchup that he injured his hip and was limited to less than 16 minutes of action.

Overall, the Spurs rising star is averaging 18.4 points per game while shooting 50.5 percent from the field and 28.6 percent from 3. He also has taken a ton of shots this season, attempting 16 in the NBA Cup semis against OKC. Castle is averaging 12.5 field goal attempts per game and only has two games with less than double-digit attempts, giving him a solid floor when it comes to this alternate line. 

Stephon Castle 5+ Assists (-170)

So far this season, Castle is averaging 6.9 assists per game for the Spurs, picking up at least five dimes in two of his three games since returning from a hip injury.

New York does rank in the top 10 in the NBA in opponent assists per game, but Castle should have the ball in his hands a ton on Tuesday with Wembanyama likely still on a minutes limit.

The second-year guard is averaging 12.7 potential assists per game, and he’s picked up at least five in 13 of his 16 appearances this season. Castle has had no issue playing alongside De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, and he appeared to return to his usual role on Saturday, playing nearly 34 minutes. 

At this discounted number, he’s worth a shot as one of the primary ball-handlers for San Antonio.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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