Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Steph Curry, Hawks-Pistons, Joel Embiid)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Friday, Dec. 12.

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry is a solid prop target on Friday. / David Gonzales-Imagn Images

Friday’s NBA action features the biggest slate of the week, as there are seven games, including a marquee matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves to close the night.

In addition to that game, the Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons face off early in the night in a battle between two contenders in the Eastern Conference. 

After several days of small slates (four or fewer games) and some NBA Cup action, it’s nice to have a ton of options to consider when betting on The Association tonight.

I’m eyeing two player props, including one for Steph Curry in his return to the lineup, as well as a spread pick in the Hawks-Pistons clash. 

Here’s a full breakdown of each of the best bets for Friday’s action! 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 87-71 (+1.69 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1378-1308-27 (+34.84 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Steph Curry OVER 24.5 Points (-111)
• Joel Embiid UNDER 22.5 Points (-114)
• Atlanta Hawks +7.5 (-115) vs. Detroit Pistons

Steph Curry OVER 24.5 Points (-111)

It may feel a little risky to bet on Curry's points prop in this game since he's missed the last five with an injury, but I think he's a little undervalued with this line set well below his season average.

Curry has 25 or more points in nine of his 16 games this season, and he's attempting 1.4 more shots and 0.8 more 3-pointers than he did last season. Minnesota is allowing 25.63 points per game to opposing point guards in the 2025-26 campaign, so this is a pretty solid matchup for Curry in his return.

The volume is going to be there for the star guard, and prior to going down with the quad injury he has posted games with 46, 49, 34, 38 and 31 points in five of his last seven games in November. I think he's worth a look at this number, especially if he plays his usual complement of minutes.

Joel Embiid UNDER 22.5 Points (-114)

So far this season, Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid has cleared 22.5 points just two times, and he's only played over 30 minutes in one game (the team's recent loss to the Los Angeles Lakers).

So, betting on him to have a big scoring game comes with a ton of risk, especially since he's shooting just 40.7 percent from the field. Embiid is taking 31.1 percent of his shots from beyond the arc this season and just 19.3 percent from inside three feet. So, he's settling for a lot of jump shots and doesn't seem to have the explosiveness near the rim that he had earlier in his career.

The Pacers rank 22nd in the NBA in opponent points in the paint per game, but I'm not sold on Embiid taking advantage of that. The former MVP has failed to reach 20 points in three straight games after a lengthy absence in November, and he looks like a shell of himself at times on the offensive end.

I'll fade him against an Indiana team that is playing better as of late, ranking sixth in the NBA in defensive rating over its last 10 games.

Atlanta Hawks +7.5 (-115) vs. Detroit Pistons

The Hawks are down Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis on Friday, but I think they’re a little undervalued as 7.5-point underdogs against the Pistons.

Detroit is 2-0 against the Hawks, but it has wins by just eight and one point in those games, including a last-second win in their last meeting. 

Jalen Johnson and the Hawks have been terrific on the road this season, going 10-5 against the spread and straight up. So, I think they can hang with this spread set over two possessions. 

Detroit got off to a red hot start, but it has cooled off over the last 10 games, posting a net rating of +3.5 while winning seven of those matchups. For the season, the Pistons have a net rating of +5.4. 

The Pistons have also won a ton of clutch games (within five points in the last five minutes), leading to a 6-6 ATS record at home. The Pistons may win, but I like the Hawks to hang around on Friday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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