Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Thunder-Pacers, Chet Holmgren, Tyrese Haliburton)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Pacers are underdogs in Game 4. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Are the Oklahoma City Thunder going to be able to stay alive in the NBA Finals?

Despite being heavily favored to win the title before their series with the Indiana Pacers, the Thunder are down 2-1 and facing a crucial Game 4 in Indiana on Friday night.

Oddsmakers have the Thunder favored to win this Game 4 matchup, and they’re also favored to win the series despite trailing. It may take a Pacers win to take a 3-1 lead for the betting market to finally give Tyrese Haliburton and company the respect they have earned in this series.

On Friday night, I’m eyeing a trio of prop bets, including one for Haliburton and another for Chet Holmgren.

Here’s a complete breakdown of each play for Game 4 of the Finals. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 277-286-5 (-10.05 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1287-1230-26 (+28.04 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Chet Holmgren UNDER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-145)
• TJ McConnell OVER 13.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)
• Tyrese Haliburton OVER 14.5 Rebounds and Assists (+100)

Chet Holmgren UNDER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-145)

Holmgren had a great showing in Game 2, but he struggled in Game 1 and down the stretch in Game 3.

The Pacers seem to be content with letting Holmgren shoot from beyond the arc, and he’s just 1-for-10 from 3 in the series, including an 0-for-6 showing in Game 3.

The former No. 2 overall pick may look to attack the basket more in Game 4, especially since he’s shooting just 25.0 percent from 3 since the start of the second round. After clearing this line in three of his four games against Memphis in the first round, Holmgren has done so just four times in his last 15 playoff games. 

He’s an easy fade candidate for me in Game 4. 

TJ McConnell OVER 13.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)

So far in this series, TJ McConnell has put up 14, 17 and 20 points, rebounds and assists, and he has yet to clear 20 minutes played in a single game.

McConnell has made his impact felt all postseason long, averaging 8.6 points, 4.1 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game. He’s cleared 13.5 PRA in 10 of his 19 playoff games, and he’s clearly given the Thunder some issues in this series, shooting 12-for-21 from the field in three games.

I think this number is a little too low for McConnell on Friday night.

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 14.5 Rebounds and Assists (+100)

Haliburton was a much more active part of the Pacers’ offense in Game 3, recording his best assist total of the series (11) and picking up nine rebounds in the process. He also scored 22 points – his most of the series – in a dominant performance. 

In the playoffs, Haliburton is averaging 9.4 assists on 15.9 potential assists per game, and he’s putting up 6.3 rebounds on 8.9 rebound chances per game.

With the Thunder opting to play small, it has opened up some more rebounding opportunities for the entire Pacers roster, including Haliburton who had 10 boards in Game 1. 

I think this line is a little low for the Indiana star, especially if he’s able to reach double-digit assists again in Game 4. Haliburton has six games (in his last nine) where he’s picked up 15 or more rebounds and assists.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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