Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Warriors, Thunder, Jalen Johnson)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Tuesday, Nov. 4.

Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson is a great prop target on Tuesday night. / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Tuesday’s NBA action features a shorter slate with just six games, but there are some intriguing matchups to take in, including a West Coast battle between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Clippers. 

The Thunder are the only undefeated team remaining in the NBA, and they’re expected to get star big man Chet Holmgren back in action tonight, leading to oddsmakers setting them as sizable favorites on the road. 

I have a bet for Chet, as he’s one of two players that I’m eyeing in the prop market on Tuesday. The other is Jalen Johnson, as the Atlanta Hawks forward should have an expanded role in the offense for the next few weeks with Trae Young (knee) sidelined. 

Plus, there are two teams that I’m eyeing to win in a moneyline parlay for tonight’s action. 

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite bets for Tuesday, Nov. 4. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 16-20 (-5.81 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1307-1257-27 (+27.34 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Jalen Johnson OVER 35.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-114)
• Golden State Warriors-Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline Parlay (-154)
• Chet Holmgren Double-Double (+168)
• Chet Holmgren 8+ Rebounds (-170)

Jalen Johnson OVER 35.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-114)

Hawks wing Jalen Johnson was my preseason pick to win the Most Improved Player award, and he’s off to a great start this season, averaging 21.2 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game.

That puts Johnson right around 35 points, rebounds and assists per night, which is where oddsmakers have set his prop against the Orlando Magic.

Johnson was forced out of Atlanta’s first matchup with Orlando this season with an ankle injury, finishing with 12 points, eight rebounds and one assist in just over 25 minutes of action.

However, outside of that game, Johnson has recorded 37, 34, 35, 43 and 41 PRA. He’s been the best player on this Hawks team, and with Trae Young out with an injury, Johnson is going to have a massive role in this offense.

In his last game, he scored 23 points, grabbed 13 rebounds and dished out five assists in a loss to Cleveland. Since returning from his ankle issue, Johnson has 16 or more field goal attempts in four games in a row, averaging 23.3 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game during that stretch.

Golden State Warriors-Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline Parlay (-154)

Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors are 4-3 this season and have yet to lose at home (3-0) heading into their matchup with the Phoenix Suns, who are 0-3 on the road this season.

That’s a perfect recipe for this moneyline pick, as I don’t love laying the 10.5 points with the Warriors as much as I like taking them to simply win this game. Golden State is 4-3 against the spread, but its average scoring margin is just +1.9 this season.

The Suns have won back-to-back games at home over Utah and San Antonio, but they still rank just 21st in net rating and 22nd in defensive rating. Golden State should be able to bounce back from some rough road showings,especially with Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green all expected to suit up in this game. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

The second leg of this moneyline parlay is for the Thunder, who should be a little healthier with Holmgren off the injury report.

OKC is undefeated to start this season, and now it’s taking on a Los Angeles Clippers team that is 1-5 against the spread and coming off a loss to the Miami Heat on Monday night at home. L.A. was an 8.5-point favorite in that game and lost outright, and now it may not have Kawhi Leonard (ankle) available on the second night of a back-to-back.

Kawhi Leonard said he turned his ankle late in the game and will see how he’s feeling tomorrow before deciding on his status against OKC pic.twitter.com/GbkTPdGQZ6

— Joey Linn (@joeylinn_) November 4, 2025

The Thunder rank first in the league in defensive rating, first in net rating and eighth in offensive rating despite being without Jalen Williams (wrist) to start the season. 

With an aging Clippers team likely sitting at least one or two players on the second night of a back-to-back, I think the Thunder roll to their eighth win in a row on Tuesday. 

Chet Holmgren Double-Double (+168)

This is the first of two props that I’m eyeing for Holmgren, as the Thunder big man got off to a great start this season before missing some time with a back injury.

Holmgren is averaging 23.0 points and 10.3 rebounds per game this season, shooting 56.9 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from beyond the arc.

He’s taken full advantage of Jalen Williams’ absence, playing a bigger role on offense while grabbing double-digit boards in three of his four games. Chet has 11 or more boards in his last three appearances. 

Now, he takes on a Clippers team that is 10th in the NBA in rebounding percentage but playing the second night of a back. I expect him to have a big role on the glass, especially since he’s averaging a whopping 19.8 rebound chances per game this season.

If you’re not sold on Chet getting a double-double at this price, I also like him to finish with eight or more boards for the fourth time this season. That isn’t nearly as favorable of a price, but the Thunder star should be able to get there with OKC a little shorthanded across  the board in its rotation on Tuesday night. 

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