Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Knicks vs. Pacers, Pascal Siakam)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers.

Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam is a great prop target on Sunday. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Indiana Pacers have a chance to push the New York Knicks to the brink in the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday, May 25.

Indiana took both games in New York to open the series, including a crazy comeback win in overtime in Game 1. Now, the Pacers are favored at home in Game 3, and the Knicks are searching for answers to keep their season alive.

According to SNY’s Ian Begley, the Knicks are considering a starting lineup change since their defense has struggled so much with their current starting five on the floor. This postseason, the Knicks have a much better net rating with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart on the bench and Mitchell Robinson and Miles McBride in the game.

It appears Robinson could move into the starting lineup on Sunday. 

Hearing the Game 3 lineup change being strongly considered by the Knicks is to move Mitchell Robinson to starting lineup and have Josh Hart come off the bench. My man @CPTheFanchise said earlier that NYK was strongly considering a change ahead of G3. NYK starting lineup is -50 in…

— Ian Begley (@IanBegley) May 25, 2025

The Knicks have been a good road team in the playoffs, going 5-1 straight up, but they’ve played this series at Indiana’s tempo, which has hurt the Knicks on the defensive end. Meanwhile, the Pacers have gotten some clutch shot making in both Games 1 and 2, and they’ve gone an impressive 12-2 straight up this postseason, losing just one game at home.

I’m eyeing a pair of bets tonight, as the Pacers aim to take a 3-0 series lead. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 269-271-4 (-5.81 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1279-1215-26 (+32.28 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Indiana Pacers Moneyline (-135) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
• Pascal Siakam OVER 20.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Indiana Pacers Moneyline (-135) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit

Starting lineup changes or not, I don’t see the adjustment for the Knicks to win this series – especially if they’re going to continue to let the Pacers get out and run.

Indiana ranks No. 2 in offensive rating and No. 1 in effective field goal percentage this postseason, while the Knicks are No. 7 and No. 10 in those respective categories. So, getting out and playing a track-meet style with the Pacers is not advantageous for New York.

Jalen Brunson has been rolling in this series, but the Knicks have struggled to get consistent production elsewhere throughout the course of a 48-minute game. It also doesn’t help that New York had a defensive rating of over 154 with Towns in the game in Game 2, forcing Tom Thibodeau to go away from him in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, the Pacers have shot the lights out in this series and have done a good job mixing and matching bodies with their massive rotation. The Knicks don’t have that luxury.

Unless New York’s defense tightens up in a major way, I don’t see it beating this red-hot Pacers team. Indy has lost just two games all postseason, including just one at home. 

Pascal Siakam OVER 20.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

This postseason, Pascal Siakam is averaging 20.3 points per game, clearing 20.5 points in six of his 12 matchups. 

He’s taking just 14.8 shots per night, but that number has seen a major increase in this series against New York. Siakam attempted 16 shots in Game 1 (he finished 7-for-16 for 17 points), and followed that up with an amazing 15-for-23 shooting performance in Game 2. 

The Knicks didn’t have an answer for him in Game 2, and I’m worried that Siakam will be able to attack a weak defender like Towns if the Knicks decide to put Robinson in the starting lineup in Game 3. 

Siakam had some down games late in the Milwaukee series that lowered his postseason average, but he’s scored 21 or more points in three of his last four games. He’s a solid target in Game 3 with Indiana looking to all but end this series.

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