Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Steph Curry, Warriors-Rockets, Donovan Mitchell)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA playoff action on Monday, April 28.

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry is a great prop target on Monday. / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

A pair of huge Game 4 matchups take place on Monday night, as the Cleveland Cavaliers aim to sweep the Miami Heat while the Golden State Warriors have a chance to take a 3-1 series lead on the Houston Rockets.

Cleveland walked into Miami and improved upon its league-best against the spread record on the road, blowing out the Heat in Game 3. Now, Cleveland is just one win away from advancing to the second round for the second season in a row. 

In the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead at home after a come-from-behind win – led by Steph Curry – in Game 3. 

Golden State didn’t have Jimmy Butler in that game, but it still pulled out the win, and oddsmakers have the Warriors favored once again in Game 4. Can the young Rockets even the series before it shifts back to Houston?

I have a few bets for tonight’s matchups, including props for Curry and Cavs star Donovan Mitchell.

Here’s a full breakdown of the best bets for Monday, April 28. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 235-226-4 (-3.66 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1245-1171-26 (+34.43 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Houston Rockets-Golden State Warriors UNDER 203 (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Donovan Mitchell OVER 25.5 Points (-120)
• Steph Curry OVER 26.5 Points (-125)

Houston Rockets-Golden State Warriors UNDER 203 (-110) – 0.5 unit

The Warriors and Rockets have now matched up eight times in the 2024-25 season (three playoffs matchups, five regular-season games), and they have cleared 203 points just one time.

That game was the first meeting of the season between the teams and it ended up going into overtime.

Since then, we’ve seen a ton of low-scoring affairs, including a 104-93 win by Golden State in Game 3. 

If Butler is unable to go, the Warriors’ offense is extremely limited, and Houston has shown all postseason that it can’t exactly score at a high level. 

Here’s a few important stats to note in this series: 

• Houston is 15th out of 16 playoff teams (only Memphis is worse) in offensive rating
• Golden State is 14th out of 16 playoff teams in offensive rating
• Houston is 16th out of 16 playoff teams in effective field goal percentage
• Only the Orlando Magic are averaging less points per game than the Warriors and Rockets 

Unless something drastically changes on the offensive end for both teams, this is going to be a low-scoring game. Golden State was the No. 1 defense in the NBA after the Butler trade this season and Houston was a top-five defensive unit all season. 

The UNDER is also a perfect 3-0 in this series. 

Donovan Mitchell OVER 25.5 Points (-120)

Mitchell was held to just 13 points on 4-of-14 shooting (in less than 30 minutes) in the blowout win over Miami in Game 3.

However, I’m buying him in Game 4, as he’s been dominant in the playoffs dating back to last season.

Prior to his Game 3 dud, this is how Mitchell had fared in his previous seven postseason appearances: 

• 50 PTS | 4 REB | 4 AST
• 39 PTS | 9 REB | 5 AST
• 33 PTS | 6 REB | 5 AST
• 29 PTS | 7 REB | 8 AST 
• 33 PTS | 6 REB | 3 AST 
• 30 PTS | 5 REB | 4 AST 
• 30 PTS | 6 REB | 6 AST

If Darius Garland (toe) sits again, Mitchell is going to be in line for a major workload once again. 

Steph Curry OVER 26.5 Points (-125)

Curry put Golden State on his back on Saturday night in Game 3, and he’s now scored 31, 20 and 36 points in his three games in this series.

The volume is going to be there for Curry – especially if Butler is out again – regardless of the flow of the game. Steph has at least 15 shot attempts in every game in this series and took 23 in Game 3 with Butler out of the lineup.

Houston’s defense is great, but Curry is an all-time playoff performer and has shown that in this matchup. At home, he’s worth a look at this number in Game 4.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.