Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Tyrese Maxey, Rockets vs. Hawks)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Tuesday, Jan. 28, including a pick for Tyrese Maxey.

Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey is a great prop target tonight. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

There are a bunch of NBA teams playing the second night of a back-to-back on Tuesday night, but that’s not going to stop me from betting on the action.

The Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks are all looking to build on wins from Monday night, and all three teams are favored on the road today. The only home team that enters this slate as a favorite is the Golden State Warriors, as they’ll play the Utah Jazz (who are on the second night of a back-to-back) at Chase Center. 

There are a couple bets that I’m making on Tuesday night 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 125-130-4 (-3.80 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1135-1075-26 (+34.29 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Houston Rockets -6 (-115) vs. Atlanta Hawks
• Tyrese Maxey OVER 29.5 Points (-115)

Houston Rockets -6 (-115) vs. Atlanta Hawks

Fresh off of an upset win over the Boston Celtics on Monday, the Rockets are favored by six points on the road against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

Atlanta lost by eight to the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, but it didn’t have Trae Young or Jalen Johnson in that matchup. 

It’ll be important to watch the Hawks injury report in this game, but I still love this Houston team – which is 4-3-1 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back – in this spot. 

Atlanta is just 3-6 against the spread in that spot, and the Rockets have also thrived as road favorites, covering in nine of 13 games (the best ATS mark in the NBA) while posting an average scoring margin of +11.6 points per game in those contests. 

Houston’s defense is one of the best in the NBA (No. 4 in defensive rating), and I’m worried about the Hawks keeping this game close if Young or Johnson sits again. Atlanta plays at an extremely fast pace, and it’s just 27th in the NBA in opponent points per game. 

As long as the Rockets don’t sit any of their main rotation players tonight, I’ll gladly back them against a Hawks team that is reeling as of late, dropping each of its last five games. 

Tyrese Maxey OVER 29.5 Points (-115)

The Philadelphia 76ers have ruled just about everyone out on Tuesday against the Los Angeles Lakers, setting up another matchup for Tyrese Maxey to attempt a ton of shots.

Joel Embiid, Paul Goerge, Jared McCain, Andre Drummond, Caleb Martin and KJ Martin are all out tonight, leaving Philly with very limited options after Maxey to score the ball.

The young point guard is averaging 26.6 points per game this season, but he’s scored 30 or more in five of his last 10 games, scoring no fewer than 28 points in any of those matchups. Overall, he’s averaging 30.5 points per game in his last 10. 

Plus, during that stretch, Maxey is attempting 23.6 shots per game. Plus, with Paul George out this season, Maxey’s points per game average jumps to 28.4. 

The Lakers don’t have an elite guard defender on their roster, and the usage for Maxey is what makes this bet worth taking. He could end up pushing 25 shot attempts in this matchup.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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