NBA Finals MVP Power Rankings and Odds (Jaylen Brown Has Massive Lead Ahead of Game 5)

Power Ranking the candidates to win the NBA Finals MVP award in 2024 between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks.
Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown.
Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA Finals aren't done -- even though Boston held a 3-0 lead entering Game 4 -- but the NBA Finals MVP market could be all but wrapped up if Boston closes out the series on Monday.

No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit (0-156) in NBA history, and Boston is favored to end things in Game 5 at TD Garden.

That puts Celtics star Jaylen Brown -- a -235 favorite -- in a great spot to capture the Finals MVP after he shined in Games 1-3 to help Boston build a 3-0 lead. While Brown struggled in Game 4, so did the rest of the Celtics, shooting just 36.3 percent from the field overall.

With Game 5 on the horizon, here's a look at the latest Finals MVP Power Rankings, with the three players that have the best shot to catch Brown for the award.

Odds to Win NBA Finals MVP

  • Jaylen Brown: -235
  • Jayson Tatum: +255
  • Luka Doncic: +1100
  • Jrue Holiday: +3500
  • Derrick White: +10000
  • Kyrie Irving: +20000

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NBA Finals MVP Power Rankings

1. Jaylen Brown (-235)

Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown.
Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Let's be honest, JB's Game 4 showing doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things since Boston pulled all of its starters with a good chunk of time left in the third quarter.

Now, it's up to Brown to play at a high level in Game 5 (and potentially beyond) to hold this top spot in the market. He has an implied probability of 70.15 percent to win this award.

2. Jayson Tatum (+255)

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum.
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum. / Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

There is a path where Jayson Tatum wins Finals MVP, but it's going to take one of two things. Either Tatum has to completely outshine Brown in a Game 5 win, or this series needs to go a few more games -- where Tatum outplays Brown in spite of losing.

JT has good stats (20.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists) for the series, but his shooting (36.5 percent from the field) makes it real tough to argue that he's deserving of the award entering Game 5.

3. Luka Doncic (+1100)

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Luka Doncic put on a clinic in the first half of Game 4, and if Dallas somehow comes back to win this series, he's going to win the Finals MVP award.

The problem? No team has ever accomplished a comeback from down 3-0 in NBA history.

4. Jrue Holiday (+3500)

Boston Celtics guard Jrue Holiday.
Boston Celtics guard Jrue Holiday. / Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

Jrue Holiday's monster Game 2 (26 points on 11-of-14 shooting, 11 rebounds, three assists) put him in the conversation for this award, but he scored just nine and 10 points in two games in Dallas.

For the series, Jrue is averaging 14.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. Those are solid numbers, but it is not enough to vault him past Brown without another huge game or two.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Peter Dewey


Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.