NBA Most Improved Player Odds for 2025-26 Season: Amen Thompson Favored, Jalen Johnson Undervalued

Breaking down the odds to win the NBA's Most Improved Player award in the 2025-26 season.

Houston Rockets guard Amen Thompson is favored to win MIP. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The NBA’s Most Improved Player award is one of the hardest awards to predict, and there’s only one player – Houston’s Amen Thompson – set at shorter than 10/1 odds to win in the 2025-26 season.

The MIP can go to a player that makes a leap towards stardom and becomes an All-Star or All-NBA player – which has been the case a lot in recent years – but it also could be a role player that ascends to a new level.

Last season, Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels ended up winning the MIP, as he finished second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting, led the NBA in steals and became an important piece of Atlanta’s core next to Trae Young.

There are a lot of young role players and former lottery picks (like Daniels) that could be poised for breakout seasons. However, voters have been hesitant to include second-year players in this award, as they are expected to show improvement from their rookie seasons. That makes players like Matas Buzelies (+2000), Reed Sheppard (+3000) and Jaylen Wells (+3500) risky selections in the betting market.

Thompson is the favorite to win this award, but there is a dark horse that I love to make a push for the honor in the 2025-26 season.

First, let’s break down the odds and some recent trends to know before betting on the MIP.  

NBA Most Improved Player Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Amen Thompson: +900
• Andrew Nembhard: +1200
• Bennedict Mathurin: +1500
• Deni Avdija: +1700
• Shaedon Sharpe: +2000
• Matas Buzelis: +2000
• Ausar Thompson: +2000
• Payton Pritchard: +2200
• Josh Giddey: +2200
• Reed Sheppard: +3000
• Jaylen Wells: +3500
• Scoot Henderson: +4000
• Kyle Filipowski: +4000
• Jonathan Kuminga: +4000
• Jalen Johnson: +4000
• Jalen Green: +4000
• Michael Porter Jr.: +4000
• Stephon Castle: +4500
• Carlton Carrington: +4500
• Chris Boucher: +5000
• Nikola Jovic: +5000
• Max Christie: +5000
• Kel’el Ware: +5000
• Anfernee Simons: +5000
• Jared McCain: +5000
• Chet Holmgren: +5000
• Jaden Ivey: +5000
• Donovan Clingan: +5000
• Brandon Miller: +5000
• Brandin Podziemski: +5000
• Cam Whitmore: +5000
• Bilal Coulibaly: +5000

Since the 2019-20 season, all but one winner of the MIP (Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Ja Morant, Lauri Markkanen, Tyrese Maxey) all earned their first All-Star berth the season they won this award.

Daniels was second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting last season, so he did make a major leap even though he didn’t end up capturing an All-Star nod. 

This season, I think it is worth betting on the All-Star trend when it comes to considering players for this award market. Last season, second-year players did not fare well on the ballot, but players entering their third or fourth seasons and are primed for bigger roles could make a ton of sense.

I have three players that I’ve narrowed down, including Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson. 

NBA Most Improved Player Predictions and Picks

Amen Thompson (+900)

Thompson is the favorite in this market after he took a major leap in his second NBA season, becoming one of the best defenders in the NBA (he finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting) while increasing his scoring average from 9.5 to 14.1 points per game.

The Rockets wing is still a work in progress as a perimeter scorer (he shot 27.5 percent from 3 on limited attempts last season), but Thompson should have an even bigger role in the Houston offense with Fred VanVleet (torn ACL) out for the season.

Could the Rockets use Thompson as an on-ball creator more often? It would make sense to try him in that role, as he did average 3.8 assists per game in the 2024-25 season. Thompson’s shot may make some of that tricky, but he’s an elite athlete that should be able to create open looks for Kevin Durant and others in this Houston offense. 

Because he’s such a two-way star, Thompson makes a lot of sense as a player that could end up either in the DPOY conversation (like Daniels was last season) or in the mix for an All-Star nod if Houston ends up being one of the best teams in the West.

If the jumper shows any signs of improvement, he’ll be tough to deny in this market. 

Jalen Johnson (+4000)

Johnson is my favorite bet in this market at +4000 after he missed a large chunk of the 2024-25 campaign with a shoulder injury.

In 36 games last season, Johnson averaged 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game while shooting 50.0 percent from the field. He was on his way to a potential All-Star berth, and I think he gets there this season on an improved Atlanta team.

Johnson stuffs the stat sheet, and he’s got room to improve as a 3-point shooter (35.5 percent in the 2023-24 season, 31.2 percent last season). Plus, the Hawks have allowed him to become the primary initiator of the team’s offense with Trae Young out of the game.

A Year 4 leap from Johnson is not out of the question, and if he gets to 20-22 points per game while maintaining his rebound and assist numbers, he’s likely going to be an All-Star in a weakened Eastern Conference. 

Some would argue his improvement was really evident last season, but since he played just 36 games, I believe he’ll end up establishing himself as a candidate in this market in the 2025-26 campaign. 

Andrew Nembhard (+1200)

The argument for Indiana Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard is simple.

He’s going to see an expanded role as the lead guard in this offense with Tyrese Haliburton out for the season, and it could lead to some big numbers as a scorer and passer. 

Nembhard has averaged 13.0 points, 6.8 assists and 2.6 rebounds in 43 games without Haliburton in his career, and he posted career-highs in points (10.0) and assists (5.0) assists per game last season.

The Pacers are going to be in the play-in tournament mix in the East, and Nembhard could put himself in the All-Star conversation if he takes his scoring to the next level. Someone is going to have to lead this Indiana offense, and Nembhard should get the first crack for Rick Carlisle. 

He may not have the scoring upside that Thompson and Johnson do, but if the Pacers are in the mix for a playoff spot, he’s likely going to be one of the driving forces.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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