NBA MVP Odds Ladder: Shai Gilgeous Alexander Leads Nikola Jokic in Two-Man Race

Breaking down the latest odds to win the NBA MVP odds at the All-Star break in the 2024-25 season.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is favored to win the MVP. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The 2024-25 NBA season is nearing the home stretch after the All-Star break, and some season-long award markets are starting to truly take shape.

Last week, ESPN released a second straw poll of NBA MVP voters, and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous Alexander (who was already the favorite in the betting market) ended up taking home the top spot over Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic.

No other player received a first or second place vote in the straw poll, signaling that it is’ highly unlikely that another player is able to win this award. That’s reflected in the latest betting odds, as no player is shorter than +8000 to win MVP after SGA and Jokic.

Latest NBA MVP Odds for 2024-25 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -500
• Nikola Jokic: +350
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: +8000
• Jayson Tatum: +20000
• Victor Wembanyama: +30000
• Karl-Anthony Towns: +50000
• Donovan Mitchell: +50000
• Jalen Brunson: +50000
• Anthony Edwards: +50000

At this point in the 2024-25 season, it appears that the MVP is a two-man race.

Gilgeous Alexander (based on these odds) has an implied probability of 83.3% to win the MVP while Jokic has an implied probability of 22.2%. 

While Jokic seems like a bit of a long shot, there may be a chance that he could close this gap if Denver continues to rise in the standings.

Here’s a full breakdown of the case for the top two players in this year’s MVP race. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Favored to Win MVP After ESPN Straw Poll

This season, SGA is averaging 32.5 points (leads the NBA), 5.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game while shooting 52.3 percent from the field and 35.9 percent from 3-point range.

The Thunder superstar has led his team to the best record in the Western Conference by a wide margin – a massive feather in his cap for his MVP case.

That’s where SGA’s path lies. OKC has been so dominant and appears to be on its way to a second No. 1 finish in the West, that it’s hard to give anyone else the MVP. Not only is Gilgeous-Alexander leading the NBA in scoring, but he also has a net rating of +18.5 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor for OKC. 

On paper, SGA isn’t going to average the massive counting numbers and triple-doubles that Jokic will, but they are both extremely impactful players to their respective team’s success. 

If OKC continues to run away with the West, it’s hard to see SGA falling out of the top spot for MVP.

Can Nikola Jokic Close Gap in NBA MVP Odds?

While Nikola Jokic has won three of the last four league MVPs, he’s facing an uphill battle this season.

First off, Jokic winning four of five MVPs would set a precedent for him when it comes to all-time greats, and voters may be hesitant to do that when there is another worthy candidate in Gilgeous-Alexander.

Not only that, but Jokic and the Nuggets – despite climbing into the No. 3 spot in the West – are still 8.5 games back of OKC.

Now, the path for Jokic does exist if Denver closes that gap to a couple of games by the end of the season. After an extremely slow start, Denver is right back in the mix to win the title, and Jokic has willed his team at times to win. 

Overall, the Nuggets are +12.2 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor and -7.7 points per 100 possessions when he’s off the floor. He and Gilgeous-Alexander are both similarly impactful in their on/off numbers (SGA is +17.4 per 100 possessions while Jokic is +19.9). 

On top of that, Jokic is averaging 29.8 points, 12.6 rebounds and 10.2 assists per game while shooting a ridiculous 57.7 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from 3. 

While SGA may be the clear favorite in the odds, Jokic has a serious case. If you believe that Denver can make a run to close the gap in the standings over the last two months of the regular season, Jokic is worth a sprinkle at +350 to win another MVP.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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