NBA MVP Odds: Nikola Jokic Favored, Giannis Antetokounmpo Rising After ESPN Straw Poll

Breaking down the latest odds to win the NBA MVP award in the 2024-25 season.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is the favorite to win MVP. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

With Christmas Day approaching and the NBA Cup in the rearview mirror, it’s a perfect time to look at the NBA’s MVP race, as ESPN’s Tim Bontemps released his first straw poll (revealed on the Brian Windhorst and the Hoop Collective podcast) on Friday morning. 

Bontemps polls 100 likely NBA MVP voters for each of these polls, and only three players (Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo) received first-place votes in the first voting. 

Jokic – the reigning league MVP – has come out as the favorite, as he’s averaging 31.0 points, 13.0 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game while shooting 56.4 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from 3. 

Here’s a look at all 14 players that received votes – and their ranking – at this point in the season. 

ESPN NBA MVP Voting in Straw Poll

• No. 1: Nikola Jokic
• No. 2: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• No. 3: Giannis Antetokounmpo
• No. 4: Jayson Tatum
• No. 5: Luka Doncic
• No. 6: Donovan Mitchell
• No. 7: Karl-Anthony Towns
• No. 8: Kevin Durant
• No. 9: Jalen Brunson
• No. 10: Steph Curry
• No. 11: Anthony Davis
• No. 12: Victor Wembanyama
• No. 13: Anthony Edwards
• No. 14: Ja Morant

Jalen Brunson (No. 9) through Ja Morant (No. 14) all received fifth-place votes in the polling, so it appears that the drop-off comes after Kevin Durant when stacking up MVP contenders.

Meanwhile, the odds for the league’s MVP have pretty much reflected the results in this voting outside of Jayson Tatum sitting behind Luka Doncic in the odds at this point in the campaign.

In addition to that, Kevin Durant (+15000 to win MVP) received some fourth-place votes despite appearing in just 16 games this season. The Phoenix Suns star could be in jeopardy of not reaching the 65-game threshold since he’s missed time due to injury this season, but the Suns are 13-3 with him in the lineup and 1-9 without him.

Here’s a full breakdown of the MVP odds at this point in the 2024-25 campaign. 

Latest NBA MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Nikola Jokic: +115
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +260
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: +500
• Luka Doncic: +800
• Jayson Tatum: +1300
• Karl-Anthony Towns: +7000
• Anthony Davis: +7000
• Anthony Edwards: +7000
• Donovan Mitchell: +8000
• Jalen Brunson: +10000
• Stephen Curry: +15000
• Kevin Durant: +15000

Nikola Jokic Favored to Win NBA MVP Award

Can Nikola Jokic win his fourth NBA MVP award this season? 

The Denver Nuggets star has the most insane on/off numbers (again) that you’ll ever see. The Nuggets are +10.3 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor and -13.3 points per 100 possessions when he’s off. 

To compare to SGA and Giannis – the two other players that received first-place votes – it’s not really close. 

NBA MVP On/Off Numbers

• Nikola Jokic: On +10.3 | Off -13.3 | Net +23.6
• Shai Gilgeous Alexander: On +15.6 | Off +3.8 | Net +11.8
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: On +1.9 | Off -0.5 | Net +2.4

So, based on these numbers, Jokic is dealing with by far the worst supporting cast, yet he’s been able to drag Denver to the No. 6 seed in the West so far in the 2024-25 campaign.

That’s where things get tricky.

Can Jokic win MVP if the Nuggets end up in the play-in?

History says that he can’t – although he has bucked the trend once in his career. Since 1983, only Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Jokic (2021-22) have won an MVP without being a top-three seed. They were both the No. 6 seed. So, Jokic is teetering on the line of being able to win the MVP right now with Denver in the No. 6 spot – there is still a ton of season to go. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo Rising in Latest NBA MVP Odds

Fresh off of an NBA Cup victory – and a huge turnaround after a slow start for the Bucks – Giannis Antetokounmpo is now +500 to win the MVP, up from where he opened at +650.

This season, the Bucks star is averaging an insane 32.7 points, 11.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game while shooting 61.4 percent from the field.

Milwaukee has worked its way back into the mix for a top spot in the East, and Antetokounmpo has undoubtedly been the driving force. He could have some value at +500, especially since the Bucks’ supporting cast has not been anything to write home about this season. 

Kevin Durant Remains Intriguing Dark Horse Pick

The 65-game threshold is a concern, but I already outlined how much better the Phoenix Suns are when Durant plays vs. when he’s out. In fact, in the revealing of the straw poll, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst revealed that he put Durant fourth on his ballot for MVP.

KD is averaging 26.4 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game while shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from 3. 

While the Suns star isn’t going to have some of the counting numbers that Jokic, Giannis or Luka will, he could find himself in the mix in this market if the Suns go on a massive run – and he stays healthy.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.