New Mexico vs. San Jose State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New Mexico Lobos-San Jose State Spartans matchup in Week 6.

The New Mexico Lobos and quarterback Jack Layne are underdogs in Week 6. / Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The New Mexico Lobos are looking to win their fourth game in a row in Week 6 of the college football season against the San Jose Spartans. 

New Mexico dropped its season opener against Michigan, but it has knocked off Idaho State, UCLA and New Mexico State since.

Meanwhile, San Jose is just 1-3 and coming off a one-point loss to Stanford in its last game. The Spartans are favored at home in this matchup, but should bettors trust them to cover?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Week 6 matchup. 

New Mexico vs. San Jose State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• New Mexico +2.5 (-105)
• San Jose State -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• New Mexico: +114
• San Jose State: -135

Total

• 57.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

New Mexico vs. San Jose State How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Oct. 3
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: CEFCU Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FS1
• New Mexico record: 3-1
• San Jose State record: 1-3

New Mexico vs. San Jose State Key Player to Watch

Walker Eget, Quarterback, San Jose State

If the Spartans want to win their second game of the 2025 season, they’ll need a strong showing from Eget, who leads the MWC in passing yards (1,187) while throwing for six scores and three picks. However, he’s completing just 57.3 percent of his passes, so there are throws that he’s leaving on the table.

New Mexico ranks 82nd in the country in EPA/Pass, but it’s much better against the run (53rd in EPA/Rush). That means Eget is likely the best chance the Spartans have of moving the ball in this matchup. 

New Mexico vs. San Jose State Prediction and Pick

Even though New Mexico lost its toughest test of the season against Michigan, it has rallied back to win three games in a row and rank 67th in the country in net EPA/Play. Meanwhile, San Jose State is 123rd in the country in net EPA/Play.

The Spartans have losses to Central Michigan, Texas and Stanford, although they did keep things close against Stanford and Central Michigan, losing by a combined three points.

Still, I have a hard time trusting this team as a favorite since it ranks 115th in EPA/Play on offense and 111th in EPA/Play on defense.

The Lobos should be able to shut down the Spartans run game, as they rank 53rd in the country in EPA/Rush and are allowing just 3.9 yards per carry this season.

New Mexico also should be able to put up points against a Spartans defense that allowed 422.0 total yards of offense per game.

I’ll take the points in this matchup since the Lobos profile as the statistically superior squad. 

Pick: New Mexico +2.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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